About the “Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict” project

“Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict” was a 2021-2022 research project funded with UK Aid from the GRSA fund at the United Kingdom Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (UK FCDO).
The project expanded the ViEWS system from dichotomous conflict/no conflict predictions to also forecasting the number of fatalities from state-based armed conflict, providing policy-makers and researchers with the ability to quantify the potential impact and intensity of conflicts.
The new model, called fatalities001, was launched in the spring of 2022.
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Predicted fatalities in Nov-22, based on data up to Aug-22.
Predicted fatalities in November 2022, based on data up to and including August 2022. Forecasts from the “fatalities001” model.


Explore resources from the project
Explore conflict predictions from the fatalities model via the VIEWS API.
Browse the publications from the project. 
Inspect the source code behind the fatalities001 model developed over the course of the project.