Sub-project 4.3: How can climate-related emergencies and population displacements be predicted with new technologies and artificial intelligence?
Sub-project 4.3 will add two components to the machine-learning toolkit developed for VIEWS:
1. On the input side, it will include projections on the most destructive climate-related hazards, such as drought, in the form of probabilistic forecasts of potentially destabilizing weather events.
2. On the output side, it will supplement the projections on UCDP-GED-based armed conflicts and violence against civilians with projections on forced displacement and migration flows five years into the future.
The project will formulate a set of models for how disasters, conflicts, cleansing, and displacement/migration flows relate to each other, as well as how they relate to models for climate change while taking into account recent changes
in the economic and institutional contexts in locations at risk.