VIEWS3 methodology
OVERVIEW OF THE PREDICTION MODEL
The fatalities model
Model version: 001 (002 coming soon)
UPDATE SCHEDULE
PREDICTED TYPE(S) OF VIOLENCE
FORECASTING WINDOW
PREDICTED OUTCOMES
COUNTRY-LEVEL COVERAGE
SUB-NATIONAL COVERAGE
Read the technical report presenting the first version of the fatalities model (fatalities001)
Predicting fatalities
ABOUT THE INPUT DATA
The features informing the VIEWS models
Key feature sets
Conflict history
Political institutions, democracy
Development
Economic growth
Climate & societal vulnerability
News monitoring
Natural and social geography
Food security and access to basic needs
GENERATING THE FORECASTS
Model training procedures
Sub-models: combinations of feature sets and algorithms
Ensemble models: groups of sub-models using “the wisdom of the crowd”
- The country-level ensemble model combines the predictions from each of the sub-models using a genetic algorithm that assigns different weights to the contribution from each model in order to maximise predictive performance.
- The sub-national ensemble model, in turn, uses a simple unweighted average of the sub-model results.