Recent news
Title: “Could vote buying be socially desirable? Exploratory analyses of a ‘failed’ list experiment” Authors: Sophia Hatz, Hanna Fjelde, and David Randahl Year: 2023 Publisher: Quality & Quantity International Journal […]
Title: “Predicting armed conflict using protest data” Authors: Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, and Maxine Leis Year: 2023 Publisher: Journal of Peace Research Abstract: Protest is a low-intensity form of […]
Title: Spatial patterns of communal violence in sub-Saharan Africa Authors: Stefan Döring and Katariina Mustasilta Year: 2023 Publisher: Journal of Peace Research Abstract: Communal violence is a major source of insecurity […]
Title: Drought exposure decreases altruism with salient group identities as key moderator Authors: Stefan Döring and Jonathan Hall Year: 2023 Publisher: Nature Climate Change Abstract: Previous research on climate change impact […]
The Expert Group for Aid Studies have published a Development Dissertation Brief (DDB) on the role of water resources for cooperation and conflict among non-state actors by Societies at Risk […]
Title: The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways Authors: Petrova, Kristina; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Håvard Hegre & Elisabeth Gilmore Date: 2023 Publisher: Environmental Research Letters Abstract: Armed […]
This morning marked the launch of the synthesis report “Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel” in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the […]
The special issue from our 2020 prediction competition is now available as International Interactions Volume 48, Issue 4 (2022). The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace […]
Presented at the “State of the science of “political futures”: Exploring how to improve the representation and usability of socio-political factors in the SSPs” workshop at the German Institute of […]
We are thrilled to announce the release of a new prediction model: the ‘fatalities’ model! The model moves from predicting dichotomous conflict/no conflict outcomes to also predicting the number of […]
The article from the prediction competition we hosted in the fall of 2020 is now available. The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace and conflict research, computer […]
Publication from the ViEWS-ESCWA collaboration. Title: Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region Authors: Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco […]
Report from ViEWS and the Sahel Predictive Analytics Project, in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). Title: Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for […]
ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By October 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one of the three […]
ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By August 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one type of violence […]
With the conflict threshold increased from at least 1 to a minimum of 25 fatalities, forecasted changes to the risk assessment of each country are far less pronounced in the […]
In the July run of the forecasting system at s = 3, we continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conict in countries that have a recent history of […]