On 13-14 March, VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre presented ‘Building and improving VIEWS, a political violence early-warning system’ at the scientific meeting Forecasting Natural and Social Systems at Royal Society, London.

Håvard’s presentation discussed what we know about armed conflicts in the past and core predictors for future conflict, statistical uncertainty in predictions, model specifications and selection, and uncertainty in the metrics we use to evaluate, select, and weigh models.