Title: The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

Authors: Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Håvard Hegre

Date: 30 December 2022

Publisher: PRIO Blogs

Abstract: We may never be able to eradicate political violence like what is now seen in Ethiopia, or in the deaths and damage wrought around the Colombo region in Sri Lanka. As Plato noted, “Only the dead have seen the end of war”. But a more realistic goal may be within our grasp: if we can more clearly see when and where violence starts, we can better prepare for and mitigate the harm of conflicts.