We are thrilled to announce the release of a new prediction model: the ‘fatalities’ model! The model moves from predicting dichotomous conflict/no conflict outcomes to also predicting the number of fatalities in impending conflict. It has been developed in collaboration with the UK FCDO, with funding from UK Aid and the GRSA fund (the ‘Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict‘ project).
Two papers are now available on the new model: a short comms piece serving as an overview/introduction report, and a detailed technical report.
Source code and model specifications can be found in the dedicated GitHub repository FCDO_predicting_fatalities. Future releases will be documented in the viewsforecasting repository.
The comms piece (overview)
Title: Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
Authors: Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, James Dale, Mihai Croicu, David Randahl, & Paola Vesco
Date: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University
The technical report
Title: Forecasting fatalities
Authors: Håvard Hegre, Forogh Akbari, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, Tim Gåsste, Remco Jansen, Peder Landsverk, Maxine Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Hannes Mueller, Malika Rakhmankulova, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, and Paola Vesco.
Date: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University