Publication from the ViEWS-ESCWA collaboration. 

Title: Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region

Authors: Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, and Lubna Ismail

Year: 2021

Publisher: UN ESCWA

Abstract: The Arab States are affected by a wide range of environmental challenges exacerbated by current and projected impacts of climate change, including, among others, depletion of scarce natural resources such as water and arable land, increasing pollution levels, and the growing number and magnitude of extreme weather events. At the same time, the Arab region has been a hotspot for conflicts during the last decades. This highlights the need among policymakers and practitioners of conflict prevention and peacebuilding to better understand how climate change might contribute to current or future dynamics of conflict. This report provides a conceptual framework for analysts and policymakers in the region that shows how the loss of livelihood, economic contraction, resource competition, migration, poor governance, and other social processes (mechanisms) spurred by climate risk are more likely to increase conflict risk when occurring in certain contexts.

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