The special issue from our 2020 prediction competition is now available as International Interactions Volume 48, Issue 4 (2022).

The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace and conflict research, computer science) to present innovative models to predict changes in armed conflict fatalities over time. Read the introduction, conclusion, or why not all the contributions inLessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition”. 

Journal: International Interactions
Volume: 48
Issue: 4 




Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi
Pages: 521-554


Felix Ettensperger
Pages: 555-578
Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh
Pages: 579-596
Thomas Chadefaux
Pages: 633-648
Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia & Stefano M. Iacus
Pages: 649-677
Christian Oswald & Daniel Ohrenhofer
Pages: 678-696
Konstantin Bätz, Ann-Cathrin Klöckner & Gerald Schneider
Pages: 697-713
Vito D’Orazio & Yu Lin
Pages: 714-738
Benjamin J. Radford
Pages: 739-758
Andreas Lindholm, Johannes Hendriks, Adrian Wills & Thomas B. Schön
Pages: 759-777
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner & Göran Kauermann
Pages: 778-799
Patrick T. Brandt, Vito D’Orazio, Latifur Khan, Yi-Fan Li, Javier Osorio & Marcus Sianan
Pages: 800-822
Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis & Desirée Nilsson
Pages: 823-840
Jonas Vestby, Jürgen Brandsch, Vilde Bergstad Larsen, Peder Landsverk & Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Pages: 841-859


Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann
Pages: 860-896