With the conflict threshold increased from at least 1 to a minimum of 25 fatalities, forecasted changes to the risk assessment of each country are far less pronounced in the August run of the system. For the strong majority of countries, little to no changes are observed and the risks of at least 25 fatalities from state-based violence in October 2020 are predominantly lower than 0.2. Ten countries however remain at a risk above 0.5 even with the new threshold: Libya, Egypt, DRC, Mali, Somalia, Nigeria, Mozambique, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Niger. Notable risk elevations are found in both of the former two, as seen from figure 2. In DRC, Somalia and Nigeria, at least 25 fatalities is nearly guaranteed, given a probability exceeding 0.8 for DRC and nearly 1.0 for the latter two.

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