In the July run of the forecasting system at s = 3, we continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conict in countries that have a recent history of conict or protest events. In Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria and Somalia, the risk of at least one battle-related death in state-based violence remains high and over 0.5, as illustrated by Figure 1a. In DRC and Nigeria, the risks now reach as high as 0.6.

Compared to the June forecasts at s = 3, Figure 2 shows that a particular risk elevation can be observed for two countries: the Central African Republic and Rwanda. For both countries, the conict risk has increased by nearly 0.1; it now surpasses 0.3 in Rwanda and measures just shy of 0.4 in CAR. The most notable decreases are found in Angola and Benin, albeit the steepest decrease only measures approximately -0.05 (Angola).