ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By October 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one of the three types of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso (>75% risk).

More specifically, the forecasting system detects particular risks of fatal political violence over the near future in Borno, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara, and the southern states in Nigeria; the Far North and Anglophone region of Cameroon; the Ituri and Kivu provinces of DRC; and in the tripartite border region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Other high-risk locations include the Tigray region and scattered locations across Oromia in Ethiopia; Mogadishu and other select locations in both southern and central Somalia, and in the Central African Republic; the coast of the Sinai peninsula in Egypt; Tripoli and Sirte in Libya; the Saloum mountain in Tunisia; and the Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique. Diffuse risks furthermore form a belt across the Sahel region, its southern neighbours, and the Horn of Africa.

Sub-national changes to the forecasts as compared to last month are predominantly confined to the regions above. Of particular note are the elevated risks for the Sahel region of Burkina Faso, north-eastern Central African Republic, the Kivu provinces of DRC, Cabo Delago in Mozambique, southern and central Somalia, and north-western and southern Nigeria (reducing risks being the most prominent in the north-east).

At the country level, the combined risk of 25 or more fatalities per month from either of the three types of violence has increased for a number of countries, most notably for Tunisia, South Africa, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

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