The Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) team is committed to providing humanitarian groups with the earliest possible warnings to support anticipatory action and save lives. With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of our forecasts, the VIEWS team is launching a new prediction challenge that seeks to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution over the outcome— thus taking the uncertainty of forecasts fully into account. This initiative will enable better anticipation of conflict and ultimately help to minimize the impact of war on people’s lives.
Conflict intensity will be defined as the UCDP “best” estimates, aggregated to the country and PRIO-GRID units of analysis. The main forecasts will be for the ´true future’, that is each month in 2024, with auxiliary retrospective predictions for the years 2018—21.