The 2023/24 VIEWS prediction competition

The VIEWS team is launching a new prediction competition, where the challenge will be to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts as a probability distribution over the outcome, to take the uncertainty of the forecasts fully into account. The number of fatalities will be defined as the UCDP `best’ estimates, aggregated to the country and PRIO-GRID units of analysis. The main forecasts will be for the ´true future’, that is each month in 2024, with auxiliary retrospective predictions for the years 2018—21.

The competition is outlined in more detail in this 

Prospective participants are asked to submit abstracts to by 15 May 2023. Preliminary forecasts will be requested by 15 September 2023, and final forecasts by 10 December 2023.

On this page, we will make available over the next couple of weeks training data, evaluation scripts, benchmark models, and other information required.

The competition follows up on the success of the previous one — see for the various outputs of that one.