The Risk Monitor

Summary reports of the monthly forecasts
Peer-reviewed articles, conference papers, and other publications
Press photos and logos
Baseline data, forecasts, and republication data 
The ViEWS2 codebase

Publications

Peer-reviewed articles

United They Stand: Findings from an Escalation Prediction Competition
Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann
International Interactions, 2022
Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production
Paola Vesco, Matija Kovacic, Malcolm Mistry, Mihai Croicu
Journal of Peace Research, 2021
ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Hegre, Håvard, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Maxine Ria Leis and Paola Vesco,
Journal of Peace Research, 2021
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peder Landsverk
International Studies Quarterly, 2021
ViEWS: A political Violence Early Warning System
Hegre, Håvard, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayeed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, and Jonas Vestby.
Journal of Peace Research, 2019
Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
Hegre, Håvard, Lisa Hultman, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård,
Journal of Politics, 2018
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, and Elisabeth Gilmore
Environmental Research letters, 2016

Conference papers

A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events
Croicu, Mihai, and Håvard Hegre
Paper presented at the 59th Annual Convention International Studies Association, San Francisco, California, 2018.
Early ViEWS: A disaggregated, open-source violence early-warning system
Colaresi, Michael, Håvard Hegre, and Jonas Nordkvelle
Paper presented at the American Political Science Association annual meeting, Philadelphia, 1 September 2016.

Working papers

The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Gilmore, Elisabeth, Håvard Hegre, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, and Kristina Petrova, 2021.
Working Paper, Uppsala University, 2021

Reports & other publications

Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region
Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, and Lubna Ismail
United Nations publication, ESCWA, 2021
Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024
Hegre, H., Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Remco Jansen, and Malika Rakhmankulova
Typescript Uppsala University, 2022
Inference with extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models
Randahl, David, and Johan Vegelius
Typescript Uppsala University, 2021

Downloads

Baseline data
ViEWS’ outcomes baseline (monthly) at the PRIO-GRID level The dataset covers January 1989 to December 2018, and has a one month resolution. Data for 2018 originates from “candidate events”. A description of the data is available in the presentation article of ViEWS in Journal of Peace Research.
Codebook (pdf)
Outcomes (.zip)
Please cite: Hegre, Håvard, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, and Stina Högbladh, 2018. “Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level”. Typescript Uppsala University.
ViEWS’ outcomes baseline (monthly) aggregates at the country level The dataset covers January 1989 to December 2018, and has a one month resolution. Data for 2018 originates from “candidate events”. A description of the data is available in the  presentation article of ViEWS in Journal of Peace Research.
Codebook (pdf)
Outcomes (.zip) – Currently unavailable online, please contact the ViEWS team for the file.
Please cite: Hegre, Håvard, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, and Stina Högbladh, 2018. “Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level”. Typescript Uppsala University.
ViEWS’ outcomes imputed (monthly) at the PRIO-GRID  level A dataset containing 5 multiple imputations of the UCDP Monthly aggregates at the PRIO-GRID level for those events that do not resolve to a precise PRIO-Grid. The methodology for imputations is described in Mihai Croicu and Håvard Hegre’s 2018 paper ” A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events”.
Codebook (pdf)
Outcomes (.zip)
Please cite: Mihai Croicu and Håvard Hegre (2018) ‘A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events’, Paper presented at the 59th Annual Convention International Studies Association, San Francisco, California
Forecasts

RETRIEVE AND REQUEST FORECASTS

Due to the size of the data, the complete ViEWS forecasts are currently not available for download. A selection of forecasts are however available through the ViEWS API, as well as through the interactive forecasting dashboard. More data will be added to these resources over 2022 as we transition into the new version of the forecasting system, ViEWS3. Limited datasets are also available for download below.  For access to other data from the ViEWS system, please submit a request to  views@pcr.uu.se in which you specify which monthly runs (versions/data releases) that you are interested in, and whether you seek only ensemble results or also constituent model results. The data can be provided in .csv format and/or visualised. 

Download historic forecasts, ensemble results

Replication data

REQUEST REPLICATION DATA

Due to the size of the data (>200 GB), replication data are currently not available for download or direct access. They are instead shared upon request to views@pcr.uu.se. Please specify in your email whether you seek the full replication data (>200 GB), or only segments thereof. Full datasets are sent as signed database dumps. They can loaded into a PostgreSQL 9.6+ server, and will generate a new database (“views”), replicating the full work environment of ViEWS. 

Source code & documentation

Source code
The ViEWS source code is readily available on ViEWS’ public  GitHub repository (OpenViEWS2).
Documentation
Please see the ViEWS manual for information about the infrastructure of the forecasting system, and a detailed installation guide.