UK FCDO: Forecasting fatalities
About
“Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict” was a 2021-2022 research project funded with UK Aid from the GRSA fund at the United Kingdom Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (UK FCDO).
The project expanded the ViEWS system from dichotomous conflict/no conflict predictions to also forecasting the number of fatalities from state-based armed conflict, providing policy-makers and researchers with the ability to quantify the potential impact and intensity of conflicts.
The first iteration of the new model, fatalities001, was launched in the spring of 2022.
Objectives
New Prediction Target
Expand the VIEWS EWS from predicting the probability of armed conflict to also forecasting the number of fatalities in future violence.
Quantify Impact
Provide policy-makers and researchers with a tool to quantify the intensity and potential impact of armed conflict.
Transparency
Promote transparent data and methodology with open access to all results.
Funders
The project was funded with UK Aid from the GRSA fund at the United Kingdom Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (UK FCDO)
