The Violence & Impacts
Early-Warning System
We deliver scalable, data-driven tools to empower decision-makers and humanitarian actors in early and anticipatory action.
Latest Updates
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Posted on 30 Jan 2026
New Data Release: Forecasts for Jan 2026 – Dec 2028
The VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict from January 2026 to December 2028 are now available. The dataset includes country-month forecasts and geo-referenced predictions for Africa and the Middle East, detailing expected direct deaths and probabilities.
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Posted on 30 Jan 2026
Maxine Leis Successfully Defends Dissertation on Conflict-Related Mobility
The VIEWS team congratulates Maxine Leis on her successful PhD dissertation defense, “Signals of Violence, Patterns of Flight,” which analyzes how violence influences population movement. The research, part of the Mistra Geopolitics Research School and VIEWS, aims to enhance predictions of conflict-related displacement.
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[Forthcoming] The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a structured expert elicitation
Vesco et al. (2026)
Forthcoming in JCR. This record will be updated when the article has been published.
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Posted on 31 Dec 2025
New Data Release: Forecasts for Dec 2025 – Nov 2028
The latest VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict are now available, covering the 36-month period from December 2025 through November 2028. The dataset includes global forecasts at the country-month level, along with geo-referenced forecasts at 0.5° spatial resolution for Africa and the Middle East. It captures the following indicators for state-based armed conflict: 📥 Download…
What we Offer
Conflict forecasts
We provide open-access, monthly forecasts of armed conflicts worldwide at both country and sub-national levels, capturing the likelihood, extent and severity of future violence over the next 1-36 months.
impact assessments
We estimate the impact of future conflict events on affected populations, allowing decision-makers and humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Research infrastructure
We provide an open-access, cutting-edge MLOps pipeline for near real-time forecasting, ensuring robust and reliant service for use across the humanitarian, development, and peace nexus.
Interesting in powering your models on our platform, or incorporating them into the VIEWS EWS? Let’s talk!
global partnerships
We collaborate with leading research institutes, IGOs, INGOs and governments, to develop innovative forecasting solutions that enhance decision-making and empower humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Schedule a call to learn more on how we assist you and your organization.
Acknowledgements
Host institutions, funding agencies, and partners
VIEWS is co-hosted by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute Oslo. The research presented on this website is the outcome of projects that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 694640, ViEWS) and Horizon Europe (Grant agreement No. 101055176, ANTICIPATE; and 101069312, ViEWS (ERC-2022-POC1)), Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant agreement No. M21-0002, Societies at Risk), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ViEWS-ESCWA), the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (GSRA – Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict), the Swedish Research Council (DEMSCORE), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA Geopolitics), the Norwegian MFA (Conflict Trends QZA-18/0227), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the Sahel Predictive Analytics project and Global Mapping of Forecasting Systems), the Norwegian Research Council (UFFAC), and the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d, VIEWS-PIN).
