Query the conflict forecasts from the ViEWS2 prediction models, generate data visualisations, and download the queried datasets. 
Browse our publications to learn more about our research.
Access and download VIEWS data, explore our GIS resources, and consult the source code behind the VIEWS models and their data infrastructure. 
ABOUT the forecasts

VIEWS in numbers

VIEWS is an ambitious early-warning system (EWS) at the frontier of research on conflict forecasting. The open-source tool is continuously developed, tested and iteratively improved. For each month in the the rolling 3-year forecasting window, it generates forecasts for the number of fatalities in impending state-based conflict, as well as dichotomous predictions for the probability of at least 25 battle-related deaths (BRDs) per country-month and at least 1 BRD per PRIO-GRID-month. 
The country-level ensemble model covers and/or draws upon:
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countries (global)
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sub-models
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conflict predictors
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data points for training and calibration
The PRIO-GRID-level ensemble model covers and/or draws upon:
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prio-grid cells
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sub-models
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conflict predictors
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data points for training and calibration
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

Current and recent projects

FORECASTING FATALITIES IN ARMED CONFLICT

in collaboration with the UK FCDO
About
A 2021-2022 research project funded by the United Kingdom Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (UK FCDO). The project expanded the ViEWS system from dichotomous conflict/no conflict predictions to also forecasting the number of fatalities from state-based armed conflict, providing policy-makers and researchers with the ability to quantify the potential impact and intensity of conflicts.

THE COUNTRY EXPERT SURVEY PROJECT

in collaboration with traditional country experts and the Lancet-SIGHT Commission
Uppsala University logo
About
The Country Expert Survey project sets out to complement and contrast the standard ViEWS predictions for Africa with qualitative assessments from over 70 traditional country experts. Based on nearly 400 assessments collected over 2019-2021, the project will release a comprehensive conflict issue dataset in 2022-2023, coupled with a number of articles presenting the dataset, as well as the implicit and explicit predictions that have been extracted from the survey data. 

THE SAHEL PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS PROJECT

in collaboration with UNHCR
UNHCR-logo
About
The 2021-2022 Sahel PA project doubles down on the special challenges facing the Sahel across the triple nexus of humanitarian aid, peace-building and development. The project has brought together 23 United Nations entities with partners – including ViEWS – at 19 prominent international research institutes.

DEMSCORE

in collaboration with leading Swedish universities
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THE ViEWS-ESCWA PROJECT

in collaboration with UN ESCWA
ESCWA logo
About
In a 2020-2022 collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Council for West Asia (ESCWA), we have developed a new forecasting model under the ViEWS2 infrastructure that incorporates data of particular importance to the Arab states. Built as an expansion of the standard ViEWS set-up, the model currently covers all of Africa and the Middle East. 

MISTRA GEOPOLITICS

in collaboration with Stockholm Environment Institute
MISTRA geo-politics logo
About
The Mistra Geo-Politics research program examines the interactions between geopolitics, human security, and global environmental change. The interdisciplinary research team seeks to develop strategies to navigate increasing geopolitical insecurity better while taking advantage of opportunities created by innovation and technological development.

THE “PROOF-OF-CONCEPT” PROJECT

in collaboration with the international community
EU and ERC logo
About
The ERC-funded “Proof-of-Concept” project sets out to explore how the output from the conflict prediction system VIEWS can be tailored to better meet the needs of different organisations across the international community. In close collaboration with a key user group of representatives from NGOs, IGOs, and government ministries, the project will be used to compile a demonstration package of case studies, special reports, and tailor-made services that showcase an array of means to access and use the VIEWS data. 

THE STABILITY AND CHANGE PROJECT

in collaboration with the Centre for Advanced Studies (CAS) in Oslo
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About
The Stability and Change project at CAS provides VIEWS the opportunity to collaborate with leading statisticians and peace-and-conflict researchers to delve deeper into the quantitative aspects of armed conflict. The project aims to develop relevant statistical methods for testing stability, pin-pointing critical junctures when such have occurred, and a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of conflict.

SOCIETIES AT RISK and ANTICIPATE – predicting the impact of armed conflict on human development

in collaboration with Karolinska Institutet, CRED, ISDC, Barcelona School of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, University of Gothenburg, University of Cambridge 
About
These multi-disciplinary programmes funded by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond and the European Research Council bring together scholars from economics, epidemiology, political science, and conflict research to study the impacts of armed conflict on human development in much greater detail and comprehensiveness than earlier studies. Based at Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute Oslo, respectively, they take a risk-analysis perspective, assessing the expected impact as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and consider effects at both the macro and micro level on economies, health, water security, political institutions and human rights, and forced migration. The result of the two projects will be incorporated into the VIEWS forecasting system to also alert observers to the impacts of armed conflict on human development. 

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WHY VIEWS?

Advantages of the VIEWS forecasts

PUBLIC AVAILABILITY

All source code and output from the VIEWS system is publicly available.

ADAPTABILITY

The versatile VIEWS system can be extended and adapted to the needs of each user and organisation. Contact us to learn more.

state-of-the-art methodology

VIEWS is built using state-of-the-art methods and machine learning techniques such as random forests, ensembling, and Extreme Gradient Boosting, which sets it apart from its competitors. 

Performance Transparency

VIEWS offers full transparency about its predictive performance for informed decision-making. See e.g. the 2022 technical report on the continuous prediction model, or the peer-reviewed 2021 JPR article on the dichotomous model

expert knowledge

The ViEWS network is large and interdisciplinary. Beyond the core team, ViEWS benefits from the expert knowledge of research associates at renowned universities and institutions across the globe; from valuable input from users in government ministries, IGOs, and NGOs; and from qualitative assessments from 70+ traditional country experts.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Funding

The research presented on this website is the outcome of projects that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 694640,  ViEWS) and Horizon Europe (Grant agreement No. 101055176, ANTICIPATE;  and 101069312, ViEWS (ERC-2022-POC1)), Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant agreement No. M21-0002 , Societies at Risk), Uppsala University, Peace Research Institute Oslo, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia ( ViEWS-ESCWA), the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (GSRA – Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict ), the Swedish Research Council (DEMSCORE), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research ( MISTRA Geopolitics), the Norwegian MFA (Conflict Trends QZA-18/0227 ), and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the  Sahel Predictive Analytics project).
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