Recent news

Håvard Hegre has been awarded a European Research Council Advanced Grant of EUR 2.5 million for the project ANTICIPATE – Anticipating the impact of armed conflict on human development. This is Hegre’s second ERC Advanced Grant: In 2017 he was awarded funding for developing the Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS). He is one out 253 […]
We are pleased to invite you to the launch of a new six-year research project at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University: ‘Societies at Risk: the Impact of Armed Conflict on Human Development’.  Date and time: Friday 20 May 2022 at 15:30-17:00 CEST Venue: Lecture Hall X of the […]
The article from the prediction competition we hosted in the fall of 2020 is now available. The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace and conflict research, computer science) to present innovative models to predict changes in armed conflict fatalities over time. The article evaluates the contributions, discusses […]
Publication from the ViEWS-ESCWA collaboration.  Title: Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region Authors: Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, and Lubna Ismail Year: 2021 Publisher: […]
Title: Societies at Risk: Anticipating the Impact of Armed Conflict Time and date: 9 March 2022, 19:00-20:00 CET Speakers:  Håvard Hegre, Dag Hammarskjöld Professor in Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Anneli Eriksson, Research Specialist, Karolinska Institutet Samer Jabbour, Professor in Public Health Practice, American University of Beirut Joaquin Salido […]
Save the date! On 20 May 2022, we invite you to join us for the launch of our new research project “Societies at Risk – Anticipating the Impact of Human Development on Armed Conflict”. More details will be announced shortly. Until then: save the date!  
The results of the latest European Research Council (ERC) Proof of Concept grant competition have now been released, and we are thrilled to announce that ViEWS has been selected for the prestigious grant! The €150,000 lump sum grant is part of the EU’s research and innovation programme, Horizon Europe, and will […]
Report from ViEWS and the Sahel Predictive Analytics Project, in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). Title: Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024 Authors: Håvard Hegre, A. Lindqvist-McGowan, P. Vesco, R. Jansen, and M. Rakhmankulova Abstract: Preventing armed conflict is […]
Uppsala University awarded a 39.7M SEK grant from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (RJ) to study the effect of armed conflict on human development Research programme: Societies at Risk – the effect of armed conflict on human development Principal Investigator: Håvard Hegre Participating researchers:  Håvard Hegre, Ashok Swain, Paola Vesco, Magnus Öberg, Nina […]
ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By October 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one of the three types of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, […]
ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By August 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one type of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Burkina […]
With the conflict threshold increased from at least 1 to a minimum of 25 fatalities, forecasted changes to the risk assessment of each country are far less pronounced in the August run of the system. For the strong majority of countries, little to no changes are observed and the risks […]
In the July run of the forecasting system at s = 3, we continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conict in countries that have a recent history of conict or protest events. In Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria and Somalia, […]
“A newer model called ViEWS, built by researchers at Uppsala University, provides a huge boost in granularity. Focusing on conflict in Africa, it offers monthly predictive readouts on multiple regions within a given state. Its threshold for violence is a single death.” Read the full article here.