Browse all publications

Peer-reviewed articles
Predicting armed conflict using protest data 
Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre & Maxine Leis
Journal of Peace Research, 2023
Spatial patterns of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa
Stefan Döring & Katariina Mustasilta  
Journal of Peace Research, 2023
Drought exposure decreases altruism with salient group identities as key moderator
Stefan Döring & Jonathan Hall 
Nature Climate Change, 2023
The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways  
Kristina Petrova, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Håvard Hegre, and Elisabeth A Gilmore 
Environmental Research Letters, 2023
Employing local peacekeeping data to forecast changes in violence 
Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis & Desirée Nilsson 
International Interactions 48(4), 2022

Predicting Escalating and De-Escalating Violence in Africa Using Markov Models
David Randahl & Johan Vegelius
International Interactions 48(4), 2022
United They Stand: Findings from an Escalation Prediction Competition
Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann
International Interactions 48(4), 2022
Lessons from an Escalation Prediction Competition
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, and Michael Colaresi
International Interactions 48(4), 2022
Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production
Paola Vesco, Matija Kovacic, Malcolm Mistry, Mihai Croicu
Journal of Peace Research, 2021
ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Hegre, Håvard, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Maxine Ria Leis and Paola Vesco,
Journal of Peace Research 58(3), 2021
Online appendices
Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D Appendix E Appendix F
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peder Landsverk
International Studies Quarterly, 2021
ViEWS: A political Violence Early Warning System
Hegre, Håvard, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayeed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, and Jonas Vestby.
Journal of Peace Research 56(2), pp. 155-174, 2019
Online appendix
Appendix
Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
Hegre, Håvard, Lisa Hultman, and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Journal of Politics 81(1), 2019
Online appendix
Appendix
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, and Elisabeth Gilmore
Environmental Research letters 11(5) 054002, 2016
Working papers

VIEWS Working PaperS

Preprints and early drafts of publications related to the projects in the VIEWS research consortium.
War Exposure and Food Insecurity
Ida Rudolfsen and Paola Vesco, 2024
The Impacts of Armed Conflict on Human Development: a Review of the Literature 
Paola Vesco, Ghassan Baliki, Tilman Brück, Stefan Döring, Annelie Eriksson, Hanne Fjelde, Debarati Guha-Sapir, Jonathan Hall, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Maxine R. Leis, Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Ida Rudolfsen, Ashok Swain, Phaidon T.B. Vassiliou, Johan von Schreeb, Nina von Uexkull and Håvard Hegre, 2024
The Echoes of War: Persistent Effects of War on Health Outcomes
Malika Rakhmankulova, Thorsten Rogall, Paola Vesco and Håvard Hegre, 2024
Women’s Empowerment and Post-Conflict Recovery after Mass Killings 
Sofia Nordenving, Thorsten Rogall and Tatiana Zárate-Barrera, 2024
Predicting the impact of armed conflict on vulnerability: a Machine Learning approach
Mariagrazia D’Angeli and Paola Vesco
Paper presented at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) workshop in Bonn, Germany, on 24-25 October 2022
Too hot to handle? Climate shocks, societal vulnerability and conflict forecasting
Vesco, Paola, Håvard Hegre, and Ole Magnus Theisen
Paper presented at the ISA Annual Convention 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee
A Review and Comparison of Conflict Early Warning Systems
Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste, and Håvard Hegre
Working Paper, Uppsala University, 2022
Predicting Armed Conflict Using Protest Data
Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, and Maxine Leis
Working Paper, Uppsala University, 2022
A Climate of War or Peace? The Effect of Droughts on Conflict Dynamics
Paola Vesco
Paper presented at the virtual ISA Annual Convention 2021
 Appendix
The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Gilmore, Elisabeth, Håvard Hegre, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, and Kristina Petrova
Working Paper, Uppsala University, 2021
Inference with extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models
Randahl, David, and Johan Vegelius
Typescript Uppsala University, 2021
A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events
Croicu, Mihai, and Håvard Hegre
Paper presented at the 59th Annual Convention International Studies Association in San Francisco, California, 2018.
Early ViEWS: A prototype for a political Violence Early-Warning System
Colaresi, Michael, Håvard Hegre, and Jonas Nordkvelle
Paper presented at the American Political Science Association annual meeting in Philadelphia, 1 September 2016.
Reports

Policy papers

Moving from Reaction to Action – Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS)
Report, United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS) and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2022
Related project: ViEWS-UNHCR (Sahel Predictive Analytics project)
Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025 (overview of the fatalities model)
Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, James Dale, Mihai Croicu, David Randahl & Paola Vesco
Report, Uppsala University, 2022
Related project: ViEWS-UK FCDO
Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024
Hegre, H., Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Remco Jansen, and Malika Rakhmankulova
Report, Uppsala University, 2022
Related project: ViEWS-UNHCR (Sahel Predictive Analytics project)
Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region
Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, and Lubna Ismail
United Nations publication, ESCWA, 2021
Related project: ViEWS-ESCWA

Technical papers (model descriptions)

Forecasting fatalities (technical report on the fatalities model)
Håvard Hegre, Forogh Akbari, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, Tim Gåsste, Remco Jansen, Peder Landsverk, Maxine Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Hannes Mueller, Malika Rakhmankulova, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Paola Vesco
Report, Uppsala University, 9 June 2022
Related project: ViEWS-UK FCDO
The VIEWS Risk Monitor

Monthly summaries from the VIEWS2018 and VIEWS2020 models’ predictions (in use 2018-2021)

2021
2020
2019
2018
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