UNHCR: Sahel Predictive Analytics Project
Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel
About
The Sahel PA project doubles down on the special challenges facing the Sahel across the triple nexus of humanitarian aid, peace-building and development with the aim of guiding decision-makers by anticipating and quickly identifying where multiple risks overlap to allow for better preparedness and to support context analysis, planning, training, and capacity-building, while also outlining where additional data is needed.
The initiative is funded by the German Federal Foreign Office and facilitated by UNHCR in support of the office of the UN Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel. It was initiated by the High-Level Committee on Programmes (HLCP) and subsequently the Chief Executives Board for Coordination (CEB) as the first whole-of-UN system approach that combines machine learning, predictive modelling, and strategic foresight to identify risk hotspots in the Sahel.
Objectives
Support Early Action Through Early Warning
Leverage machine learning and predictive analytics to identify vulnerability hotspots in the Sahel, enabling faster and more informed decision-making, planning, and early response by UN and partner organizations.
Strengthen Strategic Coordination Across the UN System
Provide a unified, data-driven pilot and first whole-of-UN approach to predictive risk assessment, improving coordination between agencies and ensuring aligned priorities across humanitarian aid, peace-building, and development initiatives.
Enable Capacity-Building and Context-Aware Planning
Offer actionable insights and forward-looking analysis to guide training, context analysis, and strategic planning, while identifying gaps in data coverage to inform future investments in information systems and local capacity.
Funders
This initiative was funded by the German Federal Foreign Office and facilitated by the United Nations High Commissioners for Refugees (UNHCR).
