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Posted on 16 Sep 2025
NRC: Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities (UFFAC)
Building onto and expanding the Violence & Impacts Early Warning System (VIEWS), the UFFAC project sets out to develop prediction models that forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflict while carefully exploring and assessing the multiple sources of uncertainty thereof with each monthly release of new VIEWS data.
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Posted on 15 Sep 2025
ERC: ANTICIPATE
ANTICIPATE is a multi-disciplinary research project directed by Professor Håvard Hegre. It brings together scholars from economics, epidemiology, political science, and conflict research to study the impacts of armed conflicts on human development – in close collaboration with researchers from the “Societies at Risk” project at Uppsala University.
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Posted on 22 Jan 2025
DND/CAF: IDEaS Prediction Contest
In 2024, the Canadian Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces (DND/CAF) invited research teams and innovators across the globe to take on the new “Fast Forward – Forecasting Global Emerging Threats” prediction challenge, offered through the Innovation for Defence Excellence and Security (IDEaS) program.
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Posted on 22 Jan 2025
GFFO: Prediction Challenge 2023/2024
With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of our forecasts, we launched our second prediction competition in 2023. It challenged participants to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution over the outcome — thus taking the uncertainty of forecasts fully into account. Learn more about the prediction challenge, explore all forecasts from the…
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Posted on 21 Jan 2025
RJ: Societies at Risk
Societies at Risk is a multi-disciplinary research program that bring together scholars from public health research, economics, political science, peace and conflict research, and natural disaster science to study the impacts of armed conflict on human development. Results will be coordinated into the operational VIEWS model. The project is closely connected with the ANTICIPATE project.
