Key definitions in VIEWS
Over the course of the Societies at Risk and ANTICIPATE projects, the VIEWS system will also be expanded with predictions for humanitarian impacts of conflict.
Continuous predictions (2022 – )
- Predicted number of battle-related deaths (BRDs) per country-month and type of violence, during each of the next 36 months.
- Predicted number of battle-related deaths (BRDs) per PRIO-GRID-month and type of violence, during each of the next 36 months.
Dichotomous predictions (2018 – )
- Predicted probability (0-100%) of at least 25 battle-related deaths per country-month and type of violence, during each of the next 36 months.
- Predicted probability (0-100%) of at least 1 battle-related death per PRIO-GRID-month and type of violence, during each of the next 36 months.
State-based conflict (sb)
Non-state conflict (ns) (forthcoming)
One-sided violence (os) (forthcoming)
 In line with UCDP coding procedures, the government of a state is defined as the party controlling the capital of the state, whether or not the party is the de jure holder of power.
 An incompatibility is by the UCDP defined as a stated challenge over the governmental power or over a specified territory.
 Armed groups are here defined as any non-governmental group of people that have announced a name for their group and that uses.
Geographic scope: Africa and the Middle East
The country-month level
The next iteration of the VIEWS model, to be released in the fall of 2022, will be based on CShapes 2.0.
The PRIO-GRID-month level
The actor level (forthcoming)
training period runs from the first month of available UCDP GED data, i.e. January 1990, up until the month before the start of the calibration period. The length of the training
period is increased by one year following the annual release of the UCDP GED dataset as we then re-train our models.
calibration period is 48 months long. Its start and end dates shift by one year following the annual release of the UCDP GED data and our subsequent re-training of the VIEWS models. If the
most recent UCDP GED release covers the year of 2021, the calibration period ends on 31 December 2021; it the last release covers the year of 2022, its runs up until 31 December 2022; and so forth.
predictor updating period runs from the month following the last month of available UCDP GED data up until and including the last month of available UCDP Candidate data. During
the predictor updating period, the VIEWS system is informed by the latter as a monthly substitute for the UCDP GED data, in addition to updates from other predictors that follow a regular update
schedule. The predictor updating period is thus extended by one month each time we generate and release a new set of monthly VIEWS forecasts.
forecasting period is the rolling 36-month period for which we release true forecasts each month. The forecasting period starts immediately after the last month of available UCDP Candidate
data, i.e. after the last month of input data informing the VIEWS models. The name of each data release in the
VIEWS API reflects the last month of input data and can thus be used to deduce when the predictor updating period ends and the forecasting period starts. The fatalities001_2022_07_t01 release of VIEWS data, e.g., is informed by data up until and including July 2022, and thus contain forecasts for August 2022 – July 2025.
- Training period: Jan 1990 – Dec 2016
- Calibration period: Jan 2017 – Dec 2020 (still awaiting ingestion of the UCDP GED data for 2021)
- Predictor updating period: Jan 2021 – July 2022
Forecasting period: August 2022 – July 2025
- Training period: Jan 1990 – Dec 2012
- Calibration period: Jan 2013 – Dec 2016
- Testing period: Jan 2017 – Dec 2020