VIEWS » Models
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Model Directory

The operational early warning system is informed by the extensive research and development activities undertaken by the VIEWS research consortium. New model versions are released on a regular basis, documented in the model directory below.

All models generate(d) monthly conflict predictions at a national and sub-national (0.5°) resolution, for each month over a rolling 3-year window. The type(s) of violence predicted, and the geographic coverage of the predictions, vary by model. 

  • Conflict model

    2018-2020

    a view of the night sky from an airplane

    ViEWS2018

    ViEWS2018 was the first operational conflict prediction model employed by the VIEWS system. This pilot model was in use between 2018-2020, generating monthly predictions for future armed conflict in Africa up to three years in advance. Scope and Coverage Model Documentation This is a legacy model. The model codebase remains accessible via an open-source GitHub repository for…

  • Conflict model

    2020-2021

    aerial view of city lights during night time

    ViEWS2020

    ViEWS2020 was the second operational conflict prediction model employed by the VIEWS system. It was in use between 2020 and 2021, generating monthly predictions for the probability of armed conflict across Africa, up to three years in advance. Scope and Coverage Model Documentation How the Model Works This is a legacy model. The model codebase remains…

  • Conflict model

    Jan 2022 – Mar 2023

    photo of outer space

    fatalities001

    fatalities001 was the first iteration of the fatalities model. It was in use between January 2022 – March 2023, generating monthly predictions for impending state-based conflict across the world up to three years in advance. Scope and Coverage Model Documentation How the Model Works This is a legacy model. The model codebase remains accessible via an open-source GitHub…

  • Conflict model

    2023–

    satellite view of earth's surface

    fatalities002

    fatalities002 is the second iteration of the fatalities model. Since its release in early 2023, it generates monthly predictions for impending state-based conflict across the world up to three years in advance. Scope and Coverage Model Documentation How the Model Works How Are the Forecasts Generated? Go to… What data informs the model? Input data (predictors) The model…

  • Conflict model

    Nov 2025 –

    lighted city at night aerial photo

    fatalities003

    fatalities003 is the latest version of the fatalities model. It has been in use since November 2025, generating monthly predictions for impending state-based conflict across the world up to three years in advance. Scope and Coverage How the Model Works Important notice: In November 2025, we made new forecasts available from both the  fatalities003 and fatalities002  models to allow for comparison. Both datasets…