News & Events

Presentation of the “Societies at Risk” research project at the World Bank Fragility Forum 2022, featuring VIEWS researchers and Joaquin Salido Marcos at the UN-OHRLLS.

Save the date! On 20 May 2022, we invite you to join us for the launch of our new research project “Societies at Risk – Anticipating the Impact of Human Development on Armed Conflict”. More details will be announced shortly. Until then: save the date!  

Report from ViEWS and the Sahel Predictive Analytics Project, in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). Title: Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024 Authors: Håvard Hegre, A. Lindqvist-McGowan, P. Vesco, R. Jansen, and M. Rakhmankulova Abstract: Preventing armed conflict is key to promoting development and…

Uppsala University awarded a 39.7M SEK grant from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (RJ) to study the effect of armed conflict on human development Research programme: Societies at Risk – the effect of armed conflict on human development Principal Investigator: Håvard Hegre Participating researchers:  Håvard Hegre, Ashok Swain, Paola Vesco, Magnus Öberg, Nina von Uexkull, and Jonathan Hall…

ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By October 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one of the three types of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso (>75%…

ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By August 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one type of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso (>75% risk). More specifically,…

With the conflict threshold increased from at least 1 to a minimum of 25 fatalities, forecasted changes to the risk assessment of each country are far less pronounced in the August run of the system. For the strong majority of countries, little to no changes are observed and the risks of at least 25 fatalities…

In the July run of the forecasting system at s = 3, we continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conict in countries that have a recent history of conict or protest events. In Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria and Somalia, the risk of at least…

“A newer model called ViEWS, built by researchers at Uppsala University, provides a huge boost in granularity. Focusing on conflict in Africa, it offers monthly predictive readouts on multiple regions within a given state. Its threshold for violence is a single death.” Read the full article here.