The latest VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict are now available, covering the 36-month period from December 2025 through November 2028.
The dataset includes global forecasts at the country-month level, along with geo-referenced forecasts at 0.5° spatial resolution for Africa and the Middle East. It captures the following indicators for state-based armed conflict:
- Predicted number of direct deaths per country-month and PRIO-grid-cell-month
- Predicted probability of at least 25 direct deaths per country-month
- Predicted probability of at least 1 direct death per grid-cell-month
📥 Download the full dataset: viewsforecasting.org/data
Please note that the dashboard remains limited to forecasts from the legacy model, fatalities001 and 002. It will be updated with the latest model’s (fatalities003) forecasts in January.
About the conflict forecasting model
To learn more about the fatalities003 model, please visit the GitHub repository views-models and navigate to the musically tributed ensembles named “pink_ponyclub” (country-level ensemble) and “skinny_love” (subnational ensemble). The latest run of the model was executed from the main branch.
To consult the model specifications of the fatalities002 model, visit the GitHub repository “viewsforecasting“.
To explore the new model pipeline, visit the GitHub repository views-platform-core.