The latest VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict are now available, covering the 36-month period from February 2026 to January 2029.
The dataset includes global forecasts at the country-month level, along with geo-referenced forecasts at 0.5° spatial resolution for Africa and the Middle East. It captures the following indicators for state-based armed conflict:
- Predicted number of direct deaths per country-month and PRIO-grid-cell-month
- Predicted probability of at least 25 direct deaths per country-month
- Predicted probability of at least 1 direct death per grid-cell-month