The latest VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict are now available, covering the 36-month period from January 2026 to December 2028.
The dataset includes global forecasts at the country-month level, along with geo-referenced forecasts at 0.5° spatial resolution for Africa and the Middle East. It captures the following indicators for state-based armed conflict:
- Predicted number of direct deaths per country-month and PRIO-grid-cell-month
- Predicted probability of at least 25 direct deaths per country-month
- Predicted probability of at least 1 direct death per grid-cell-month
📥 Download the full dataset: https://viewsforecasting.org/data
Please note that the dashboard remains limited to forecasts from the discontinued models, fatalities001 and 002. It will be updated with the latest model’s (fatalities003) forecasts in January.