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ERC: ViEWS Proof of Concept

Exploring the Societal Potential of Data-Driven Conflict Forecasting through the Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS)

About

The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (ViEWS) concluded its 18-month Proof-of-Concept (PoC) project in 2022, marking a significant step forward in bringing data-driven conflict forecasting into practical use across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding sectors.

Funded by a prestigious €150,000 ERC Proof of Concept grant through Horizon Europe, the project aimed to explore and enhance the societal relevance of ViEWS’ global and subnational conflict forecasts. Led by Professor Håvard Hegre through the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), this initiative represented the only Norwegian PoC grant awarded in its call.

Host Institution

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Project Period

Sep 2022 – Feb 2024

Project Leader

Håvard Hegre

Funder

European Research Council (ERC)

Budget

EUR 150 000

Activities & Milestones

The ViEWS PoC project helped enhance the accessibility, relevance, and usability of our forecasting system for operational contexts. It also laid the groundwork for further institutional partnerships and service development, positioning ViEWS as a practical tool for anticipatory action and strategic planning. Some of the key activities and milestones are listed below.

Practitioner Workshop (Oct 2022): The project launched with a multi-stakeholder workshop attended by over 30 representatives from organisations across the triple nexus of humanitarian aid, peacebuilding, and development.

User consultation & co-creation: Feedback from the workshop informed a set of actionable priorities, which guided the development of new user-focused resources.

Launch of the interactive VIEWS dashboard: A major outcome was the public release of a redesigned data dashboard, offering streamlined access to ViEWS forecasts and datasets.

Model innovation: The project showcased advances in the fatalities prediction model, enabling more precise estimates of conflict intensity.

Objectives

User engagement

Collaborating with a targeted group of NGOs, IGOs, and government ministries to identify needs and use cases

Product development

Creating tailored outputs such as case studies, special reports, and interactive tools

Access and communication

Developing user-friendly interfaces and resources to facilitate broader access to ViEWS data

News, Events & Publications

Updates from the project

Funder

This project was funded by the European Research Council.