ESCWA: The ViEWS-ESCWA Collaboration
Building a bespoke conflict forecasting model for the Arab states
About
In a 2020-2022 collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Council for West Asia (ESCWA), we developed a new forecasting model under the ViEWS2 data infrastructure that incorporated data of particular importance to the Arab states. Built as an expansion of the standard ViEWS system, the model covered all of Africa and the Middle East.
The ViEWS-ESCWA model was in production until the end of 2021, producing monthly forecasts for the probability of fatal state-based armed conflict, non-state armed conflict, and one-sided violence against civilians over the next 1-36 months at both country and subnational levels.
Forecasts from the (now discontinued) ViEWS-ESCWA model are available in the VIEWS API.
Objectives
Develop a bespoke forecasting model
Develop a bespoke version of the VIEWS conflict forecasting model that leverages data on key conflict drivers in the Arab states.
Expand the model to the Middle East
Expand the geographic coverage of the VIEWS system from Africa to the Middle East.
Build an API
Build an API to deliver the forecasts from the bespoke model – and the main VIEWS forecasts – with open access.
Funders
The project was funded by the United Nations Economic and Social Council for West Asia (UN ESCWA)