A Review and Comparison of Conflict Early Warning Systems

Abstract:

We review and compare conflict early warning systems on three dimensions: transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. We reveal a need for improved transparency and accessibility of data and code, considerable variation in key parameters across systems, and significant overlaps in the countries that are identified with the highest risk. We propose that developing standards and platforms that promote transparency, accessibility, and inter-system cooperation can improve knowledge proliferation, system development, and ultimately, mitigate and prevent political violence.

Authors:

Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste and Håvard Hegre <br/>