Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models

Abstract:

Processes that occasionally, but not always, produce extreme values are notoriously difficult to model, as a small number of extreme observations may have a large impact on the results. Existing methods for handling extreme values are often arbitrary and leave researchers without guidance regarding this problem. In this paper, we propose an extreme value and zero-inflated negative binomial (EVZINB) regression model, which allows for separate modeling of extreme and nonextreme observations to solve this problem. The EVZINB model offers an elegant solution to modeling data with extreme values and allows researchers to draw additional inferences about both extreme and nonextreme observations. We illustrate the usefulness of the EVZINB model by replicating a study on the effects of the deployment of UN peacekeepers on one-sided violence against civilians.

Authors:

David Randahl and Johan Vegelius