Levels of analysis and the dependent variables

Abstract:

The VIEWS forecasting model provides monthly forecasts for the number of battle-related deaths expected in impending political violence during each of the next 36 months, as well as the probabilities that these counts will exceed a given threshold. In this paper we describe the current levels of analysis, how the outcome is defined and how historical conflict data is distributed.

Authors:

Håvard Hegre, Sofia Nordenving, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, and Paola Vesco