The Echoes of War: Persistent Effects of War on Health Outcomes

Abstract:

Armed conflicts have long-lasting negative impacts on people’s health and wellbeing. Although these negative impacts are well documented, the magnitude of this effect, and how it varies over time and by violence type, remains poorly understood. This study provides the first global, comprehensive estimate of the impacts of armed conflict on the overall burden of disease, and how they vary across age and gender groups, over time, and by type of violence. We use panel data on disability-adjusted life years for 2000-2019, in combination with the geo-referenced version of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Dataset (UCDP GED). We find that, on average, a single year of war leads to 2.1 months lost to disability for every person. Beyond an immediate but short-lived increase in injuries, armed conflicts have a delayed but long-lasting effect on communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional diseases. These diseases are the primary driver of years lost, relative to non-communicable conditions or injuries. The study also illuminates that one-sided violence has the strongest detrimental effect on health compared to non-state and state-based conflicts. These results contribute an important insight on the shadow cast by war, and may help improve the efficiency of prevention policies and health interventions in conflict and post-conflict settings.

Authors:

Malika Rakhmankulova, Thorsten Rogall, Paola Vesco and Håvard Hegre