Title: Conflict Worsens the Impact of Flood on Food Insecurity: Evidence from the Nargis Cyclone in Myanmar
Authors: Thorsten Rogall, Ida Rudolfsen, and Paola Vesco
Year: 2025
Abstract: Conflicts and climate hazards are among the main drivers of food insecurity globally. Some of the most severe famines in modern history have occurred in locations where conflict intersects with climate hazards, such as the Ethiopian famine of the 1980s and more recent crises in Yemen and South Sudan. Yet, existing research tends to focus on climate hazards and conflict as separate drivers of food insecurity, and there is limited systematic evidence on their combined impact. We address this gap by investigating the effect of the 2008 flood in Myanmar on medium-term food security in the affected population, and testing the role of ongoing conflict in shaping this impact. Preliminary findings reveal that the 2008 flood itself increased food insecurity by 7–18%. However, this effect goes up by 61–106% for every one standard-deviation increase in conflict experienced in a location that was exposed to flood. In particular, children in conflict-affected areas displayed lower weight and height for their age compared to children in non-exposed locations. Our findings point to the importance of achieving and sustaining peace as a valuable strategy for reducing local vulnerability to climate impacts. These results may contribute to actionable insights for policymakers to design disaster risk management and adaptation strategies that account for the unique vulnerabilities of conflict-affected regions.
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