Publications

Title: The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, With Uncertainty Authors: Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D’Orazio, Hannah Frank, Cornelius Fritz,…

Title: Societies at risk: the correlation between intensity of armed conflict and child health during the civil war in South Sudan Author: Caroline de Groot, MHD Bahaa Aldin Alhaffar & Anneli Eriksson  Year: 2025 Suggested Citation:  de Groot, C., Alhaffar, M.B.A. & Eriksson, A. Societies at risk: the correlation between intensity of armed conflict and child health during…

Title: Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies Author: Thorsten Rogall Year: 2025 Suggested Citation:  “Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies”, Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 20: No. 2, pp 183-229. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00021158 Abstract: How can autocratic leaders influence voters and entrench their rule? I analyze…

Title: Bridging Gaps in Water Governance: Addressing Conflict and Climate Challenges Authors: Stefan Döring Year: 2025 Abstract: Despite frequent warnings of ‘water wars’, conflicts over water rarely escalate into violence. While most disputes over water access, quantity, or infrastructure remain non-violent, the gap between national water diplomacy and local water disputes presents a critical governance…

Title: Conflict Worsens the Impact of Flood on Food Insecurity: Evidence from the Nargis Cyclone in Myanmar Authors: Thorsten Rogall, Ida Rudolfsen, and Paola Vesco Year: 2025 Abstract: Conflicts and climate hazards are among the main drivers of food insecurity globally. Some of the most severe famines in modern history have occurred in locations where…

Abstract This study advances the field of conflict forecasting by using text-based actor embeddings with transformer models to predict dynamic changes in violent conflict patterns at the actor level. More specifically, we combine newswire texts with structured conflict event data and leverage recent advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to forecast escalations and de-escalations…

Abstract Over the past decade, the field of conflict forecasting has undergone a remarkable metamorphosis, transforming from a series of isolated efforts with low predictive power into large, globe-spanning projects with impressive performance. However, despite this evolution, many challenges still remain. First, while we are good at predicting absolute risks, we are poor at predicting…

Abstract: Despite unprecedented access to data, resources, and wealth, the world faces an escalating wave of humanitarian crises. Armed conflict, climate-induced disasters, and political instability are displacing millions and devastating communities. Nearly one in every five children are living in or fleeing conflict zones (OCHA, 2024). Often the impacts of conflict and climatic hazards –…

The article reviews the literature on how armed conflicts adversely affect human development across nine dimensions, emphasizing the need for a multidisciplinary approach. It highlights gaps in research and calls for systematic empirical testing to better understand the interconnections between conflict impacts, ultimately aiming to inform policies that mitigate war’s adverse effects.

The study by Randahl et al. develops machine-learning models to forecast electoral violence globally, addressing its threat to the legitimacy and fairness of electoral outcomes. By analyzing economic indicators, historical violence, and political instability, the models predict violence risk for 2024-2025 with high accuracy, aiding in effective prevention strategies for at-risk elections.

Title: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” Authors: David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, Håvard Hegre Year: 2024 Publisher: – / Currently available as a preprint. Abstract: Forecasting of armed conflicts is an important area of research that has the potential to save lives and prevent suffering. However, most existing forecasting models provide only…

Title: “This is not normal! (Re-) Evaluating the lower n guidelines for regression analysis” Authors: David Randahl Year: 2024 Publisher: – / Currently available as a preprint. Abstract: The commonly cited rule of thumb for regression analysis, which suggests that a sample size of n≥30 is sufficient to ensure valid inferences, is frequently referenced but…

Title: “Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models” Authors: David Randahl, Johan Vegelius Year: 2024 Publisher: – / Currently available as a preprint. Abstract: In this contribution to the VIEWS 2023 prediction challenge, we propose using an observed Markov model for making predictions of densities of fatalities from armed conflicts. The…

Title: “When Sensitivity Bias Varies Across Subgroups: The Impact of Non-uniform Polarity in List Experiments” Authors: Sophia Hatz, David Randahl Year: 2024 Publisher: – / Currently available as a preprint. Abstract: Survey researchers face the problem of sensitivity bias: since people are reluctant to reveal socially undesirable or otherwise risky traits, aggregate estimates of these…