The Violence & Impacts
Early-Warning System
We deliver scalable, data-driven tools to empower decision-makers and humanitarian actors in early and anticipatory action.
Latest Updates
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Posted on 28 Nov 2025
New Conflict Forecasting Model Released: Introducing ‘fatalities003’
We’re thrilled to announce the release of the new fatalities003 conflict prediction model – running on an entirely new production pipeline. What’s New? Building on its predecessor (fatalities002), the new model retains the same sub-model structure, with each sub-model corresponding to a counterpart in the previous version. However, several key changes have been made: Forecasts…
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Posted on 31 Oct 2025
Improved Handling of UCDP Summary Events in VIEWS Forecasts and API Data
As of October 2025, VIEWS has implemented an important update to how summary events in the UCDP GED and UCDP Candidate datasets are processed in our forecasting pipeline. This change improves how temporal uncertainty in conflict data is handled by our models. Summary events are records that span multiple months, used by UCDP when the…
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Posted on 31 Oct 2025
New Data Release: Forecasts for October 2025 – September 2028
The latest VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict are now available, covering the 36-month period from October 2025 through September 2028. The dataset includes global forecasts at the country-month level, along with geo-referenced forecasts at 0.5° spatial resolution for Africa and the Middle East. It captures the following indicators for state-based armed conflict: 🔍 Explore…
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Posted on 31 Oct 2025
Lindqvist-McGowan and Vesco presents VIEWS to UN 2.0 Data Strategy Community
Earlier this month, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan and Paola Vesco presented the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) for the UN 2.0 Data Strategy Community in a webinar titled “How Predictive Analytics Are Powering Early Action in Conflict Zones”. The invitation was shared with over 9,000 staff across the UN system globally, and the session drew close…
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Posted on 30 Sep 2025
Forecasting Regime Breakdowns: David Randahl at APSA 2025
Vancouver, Canada – Post-Doctoral Researcher David Randahl (Uppsala University) presented recent work at the 2025 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA) held in Vancouver, Canada, from September 11–14. Randahl presented the paper “Forecasting Regime Breakdowns”, co-authored with Vilde Lunnan Djuve and Carl-Henrik Knutsen from the Department of Political Science at the University…
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Posted on 18 Jun 2025
Håvard Hegre Presents in Opening Panel at DEMSCORE Conference 2025
The 2025 Demscore Conference in Gothenburg began with discussions emphasizing data-driven research’s role in understanding political systems. VIEWS, a consortium partner, showcased its early-warning system for armed conflict and contributed to panels on methodologies and innovations, reinforcing the importance of transparency in conflict data forecasting.
Topics: Presentation -
Paola Vesco Presents on Conflict, Floods, and Food Insecurity in Myanmar at NEPS 2025
At the 2025 Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference in Barcelona, Paola Vesco presented research revealing that armed conflict exacerbates food insecurity caused by flooding in Myanmar. The study indicates that areas facing both disasters see significant declines in child health, emphasizing the importance of integrating peacebuilding into humanitarian efforts.
What we Offer
Conflict forecasts
We provide open-access, monthly forecasts of armed conflicts worldwide at both country and sub-national levels, capturing the likelihood, extent and severity of future violence over the next 1-36 months.
impact assessments
We estimate the impact of future conflict events on affected populations, allowing decision-makers and humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Research infrastructure
We provide an open-access, cutting-edge MLOps pipeline for near real-time forecasting, ensuring robust and reliant service for use across the humanitarian, development, and peace nexus.
Interesting in powering your models on our platform, or incorporating them into the VIEWS EWS? Let’s talk!
global partnerships
We collaborate with leading research institutes, IGOs, INGOs and governments, to develop innovative forecasting solutions that enhance decision-making and empower humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Schedule a call to learn more on how we assist you and your organization.
Acknowledgements
Host institutions, funding agencies, and partners
VIEWS is co-hosted by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute Oslo. The research presented on this website is the outcome of projects that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 694640, ViEWS) and Horizon Europe (Grant agreement No. 101055176, ANTICIPATE; and 101069312, ViEWS (ERC-2022-POC1)), Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant agreement No. M21-0002, Societies at Risk), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ViEWS-ESCWA), the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (GSRA – Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict), the Swedish Research Council (DEMSCORE), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA Geopolitics), the Norwegian MFA (Conflict Trends QZA-18/0227), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the Sahel Predictive Analytics project and Global Mapping of Forecasting Systems), the Norwegian Research Council (UFFAC), and the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d, VIEWS-PIN).
