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ERC: ANTICIPATE

Anticipating the Impact of Armed Conflict on Human Development

About

ANTICIPATE is a multi-disciplinary research project directed by Professor Håvard Hegre. It brings together scholars from economics, epidemiology, political science, and conflict research to study the impacts of armed conflicts on human development – in close collaboration with researchers from the “Societies at Risk” project at Uppsala University.

The project employs a risk-analysis perspective, assessing the expected impact of armed conflict as a function of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability on economies, health and political institutions at the macro and micro level. It accounts for how effects of observed, overt violence are transmitted to locations far from the violence itself and over time; identifies conditions that make local communities, marginalized groups, and women particularly vulnerable to the effects; and studies how conflict increases their vulnerability to other shocks such as natural disasters.

Results from the project will feed into and extend the live VIEWS early-warning system, and inform policy recommendations for parties seeking to reduce the impact of armed conflict on human development.

Host Institution

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Project Period

Dec 2022 – Dec 2027

Project Leader

Håvard Hegre

Funder

European Research Council (ERC)

Budget

EUR 2 499 155

Objectives

Interdisciplinary Risk Framework

Pioneer an interdisciplinary risk framework – drawing from political science, economics, public health, and data science – to model how conflict hazards, exposure, and vulnerability interact to shape the human consequences of armed conflict.

Live Early-Warning System

Expand the live VIEWS early-warning platform from forecasting armed conflict to forecasting its humanitarian impacts, translating forward-looking risk assessments into actionable insights that support timely prevention, preparedness, and humanitarian response.

Policy Recommendations

Generate evidence-based policy guidance to help international, national, and local actors prevent, mitigate, and respond to the humanitarian impacts of armed conflict.

News, Events & Publications

Updates from the project

Partners

In collaboration with the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University; International Security and Development Center (ISDC); and the Institute for Economic Analysis in Barcelona.

Funder

This project is funded by a European Research Council Advanced Grant (Grant agreement No. 101055176).