Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
VIEWS is committed to providing humanitarian groups with the earliest possible warnings to support anticipatory action and save lives. With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of our forecasts, we launched a new prediction challenge in 2023 that challenged participants to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution over the outcome — thus taking the uncertainty of forecasts fully into account. This initiative will enable better anticipation of conflict and ultimately help to minimize the impact of war on people’s lives.
Learn more about the prediction challenge, explore the forecasts from the participating teams in the data dashboard, read the introduction article, and consult the model papers below.
The 2023/24 edition of the VIEWS Prediction Challenge is funded by the German Ministry for Foreign Affairs and PREVIEW.
Explore new modeling approaches to improve the accuracy and certainty of conflict forecasts.
Forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution over the outcome — taking the uncertainty of forecasts fully into account.
Provide humanitarian actors with timely and reliable warnings to support anticipatory action and minimize the impacts of armed conflict on lives and livelihoods
Instructions, training data and codebooks
Explore the forecasts from – and evaluation of – the contestants’ models
Consult the monthly evaluation metrics for the contestants’ models
Browse the publications from the challenge
Browse publications from the challenge
2024
Funded by the German Federal Foreign Office and PREVIEW
