Refugee camp in Eritrea

RJ: Societies at Risk

The effect of armed conflict on human development

About

Societies at Risk is a multidisciplinary research program dedicated to understanding and forecasting the far-reaching impacts of armed conflict on human development. It explores how both direct and indirect effects of violence cascade across sectors such as health, the economy, water security, displacement, and governance – often reinforcing each other and compounding community vulnerabilities to additional shocks like natural disasters.

The program works in close collaboration with the ANTICIPATE project at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), under the leadership of Prof. Håvard Hegre. Together, these initiatives bring together leading experts from Uppsala University, PRIO, Karolinska Institutet, V-Dem at the University of Gothenburg, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), the International Security and Development Center (ISDC), and the University of Pittsburgh.

This collaborative research not only deepens our understanding of how conflict disrupts key dimensions of development, but also directly informs the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS). The integration of cutting-edge findings into VIEWS helps shape practical strategies to mitigate the consequences of conflict – ultimately aiming to strengthen resilience and support sustainable development in affected regions.



Objectives

Understand the Multidimensional Impacts of Conflict

Investigate how armed conflict affects key areas of human development – including health, economic stability, governance, water security, and displacement – and how these effects interact and amplify vulnerability.

Develop Predictive Models for Humanitarian Risk

Develop and refine data-driven forecasting tools, integrating interdisciplinary research to anticipate the societal consequences of conflict more accurately and at finer spatial and temporal scales.

Harness Research Findings for Crisis Early-Warning

Translate research insights into actionable early-warning outputs via the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS), helping policymakers, development actors, and humanitarian organizations prepare for and mitigate conflict-driven crises.

Project Updates

Latest news from the project

Funding

Societies at Risk is funded by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond

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