General

ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By August 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one type of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso (>75% risk). More specifically,…

With the conflict threshold increased from at least 1 to a minimum of 25 fatalities, forecasted changes to the risk assessment of each country are far less pronounced in the August run of the system. For the strong majority of countries, little to no changes are observed and the risks of at least 25 fatalities…

In the July run of the forecasting system at s = 3, we continue to forecast a high probability of state-based conict in countries that have a recent history of conict or protest events. In Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria and Somalia, the risk of at least…

“A newer model called ViEWS, built by researchers at Uppsala University, provides a huge boost in granularity. Focusing on conflict in Africa, it offers monthly predictive readouts on multiple regions within a given state. Its threshold for violence is a single death.” Read the full article here.