General

The special issue from our 2020 prediction competition is now available as International Interactions Volume 48, Issue 4 (2022). The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace and conflict research, computer science) to present innovative models to predict changes in armed conflict fatalities over time. Read the introduction, conclusion, or why not…

We are seeking to expand the team developing VIEWS with a position as senior developer at PRIO in Oslo, Norway. PRIO conducts research for a more peaceful world, and is committed to using the best of what technology has to offer to achieve that purpose. Having been at the forefront of data-driven social science research…

Dataset: fatalities001_2022_09_t01 Content: Learn more and access the data via the VIEWS API | Codebook

Presented at the “State of the science of “political futures”: Exploring how to improve the representation and usability of socio-political factors in the SSPs” workshop at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) in Bonn, Germany, 24-25 October 2022. Title: Predicting the impact of armed conflict on vulnerability: a Machine Learning approach Authors: Mariagrazia D’Angeli…

On Nov 3rd, VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre discussed using conflict prediction models for anticipatory action in a webinar hosted by the OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data.

The Societies at Risk research project launched at Uppsala University on 20 May 2022, bringing together multidisciplinary scholars to study conflict impact on development. Stream the recording from the event.

We are thrilled to announce the release of a new prediction model: the ‘fatalities’ model! The model moves from predicting dichotomous conflict/no conflict outcomes to also predicting the number of fatalities in impending conflict. It has been developed in collaboration with the UK FCDO, with funding from UK Aid and the GRSA fund (the ‘Forecasting…

Håvard Hegre has been awarded a European Research Council Advanced Grant of EUR 2.5 million for the project ANTICIPATE – Anticipating the impact of armed conflict on human development. This is Hegre’s second ERC Advanced Grant: In 2017 he was awarded funding for developing the Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS). He is one out 253 leading researchers across Europe receiving…

Uppsala University’s Department of Peace and Conflict Research invites the public to the launch of a new six-year research project ‘Societies at Risk: the Impact of Armed Conflict on Human Development’ on May 20, 2022. The event will feature a keynote address by Andrew Harper and a panel discussion involving several notable researchers.

The article from the prediction competition we hosted in the fall of 2020 is now available. The competition invited researchers from different fields (political science, statistics, peace and conflict research, computer science) to present innovative models to predict changes in armed conflict fatalities over time. The article evaluates the contributions, discusses their most innovative elements, and…

Publication from the ViEWS-ESCWA collaboration.  Title: Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region Authors: Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, and Lubna Ismail Year: 2021 Publisher: UN ESCWA Abstract: The Arab…

Presentation of the “Societies at Risk” research project at the World Bank Fragility Forum 2022, featuring VIEWS researchers and Joaquin Salido Marcos at the UN-OHRLLS.

Save the date! On 20 May 2022, we invite you to join us for the launch of our new research project “Societies at Risk – Anticipating the Impact of Human Development on Armed Conflict”. More details will be announced shortly. Until then: save the date!  

Report from ViEWS and the Sahel Predictive Analytics Project, in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS). Title: Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024 Authors: Håvard Hegre, A. Lindqvist-McGowan, P. Vesco, R. Jansen, and M. Rakhmankulova Abstract: Preventing armed conflict is key to promoting development and…

Uppsala University awarded a 39.7M SEK grant from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (RJ) to study the effect of armed conflict on human development Research programme: Societies at Risk – the effect of armed conflict on human development Principal Investigator: Håvard Hegre Participating researchers:  Håvard Hegre, Ashok Swain, Paola Vesco, Magnus Öberg, Nina von Uexkull, and Jonathan Hall…

ViEWS generates high-risk alerts for countries with a recent history of fatal political violence. By October 2021, 25 or more fatalities per month from at least one of the three types of violence that ViEWS predicts are almost certain in DRC and Nigeria, and highly likely in Somalia, Mali, Ethiopia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso (>75%…