Showing Results For:
Prediction Challenge 2023 2024
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Predicting Fatalities with Pre-trained Temporal Transformers: A Time Series Regression Approach”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Luca Macis, Marco Tagliapietra, Elena Siletti, and Paola Pisano
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Predicting fatalities using newspaper text”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Alexandra Málaga, Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, and Benjamin Seimon
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“A Zero-Inflated Poisson Generalized Additive Model for Forecasting Conflict Fatalities”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: David Muchlinski and Chandler Thornhill
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Probabilistic Conflict Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Vito D’Orazio
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Forecasting fatalities from state based conflicts using Markov models”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: David Randahl and Johan Vegelius
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
Probabilistic Forecasting of Conflict Fatalities: Historical Quantiles vs. Bayesian Penalized Regression
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Simon Drauz and Friederike Becker
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Temporal patterns in conflict prediction: An improved shape-based approach”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Thomas Schincariol, Hannah Frank, and Thomas Chadefaux
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Random Forest Predictions with Dyad Features”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Finn Klebe, and Nils W. Metternich
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
Forecasting Monthly Fatalities via a Negative Binomial Distribution and Comparison with a Hurdle Model and Neural Networks
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Tobias Bodentien and Lotta Rüter
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner, Christian Oswald, and Marco Binetti
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Predicting uncertainty in stages: Using a semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model for predicting distributions of conflict fatalities”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Cornelius Fritz, Christoph Dworschak, and Marius Mehrl
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Bayesian Density Forecasts for VIEWS”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Patrick T. Brandt
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, and Martin Hofer
