Press release – original posted by PRIO Ukraine, Palestine/Israel, Sudan, Pakistan and Nigeria are projected to […]
We are pleased to announce two new positions, with a deadline of 15 January 2026, to join Research Professor […]
VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre was recently interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat, Finland’s largest subscription newspaper, in a […]
VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre was recently interviewed by the Danish fact-checking site TjekDet in connection with […]
Oslo, Norway – The VIEWS team convened at PRIO from 19–21 November for a hands-on workshop […]
Title: It comes in peace? AI’s promise and peril for women, peace and security Author: Paola […]
Title: La Inteligencia Artificial: ¿Al Servicio de la Paz? Author: Håvard Hegre Publication Date: November 2025 Publisher: […]
Sonja Häffner and Simon Polichinel von der Maase presented at the 59th North American Meeting of the Peace Science Society (International) in Orlando, Florida. They discussed the EdAttack project, which systematically studies conflict-related attacks on education in sub-Saharan Africa using large language models to understand their consequences for affected children’s futures.
We’re thrilled to announce the release of the new fatalities003 conflict prediction model – running on […]
As of October 2025, VIEWS has implemented an important update to how summary events in the […]
The latest VIEWS forecasts for state-based armed conflict are now available, covering the 36-month period from […]
Earlier this month, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan and Paola Vesco presented the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) […]
Vancouver, Canada – Post-Doctoral Researcher David Randahl (Uppsala University) presented recent work at the 2025 Annual […]
Stockholm, Sweden / Online – Senior Researcher Stefan Döring presented at the Second International Virtual Conference […]
Washington, D.C., USA – Senior Researcher Simon Polichinel von der Maase spoke at a high-level workshop […]
Berlin, Germany – VIEWS researchers Paola Vesco, Chandler Williams, Sonja Häffner, and Simon Polichinel von der […]
Stockholm, Sweden – Senior Researcher Stefan Döring joined a panel discussion at World Water Week in […]
We’re pleased to welcome this year’s interns supporting the work of VIEWS and Societies at Risk: […]
New York, USA | Tokyo, Japan – In July, Stefan Döring took part in the preparatory […]
A new study, co-authored by experts including VIEWS researchers Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir, presents the first independent, survey-based estimate of war-related mortality in Gaza.
The study estimates that 75,200 people were killed by violence in the Gaza Strip (95% CI: 63,600–86,800) between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025, more than half of which were women, children, and elderly.
In July 2025, VIEWS representatives participated in the AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva, engaging in discussions about AI's role in peace and conflict prevention. They also attended the Crisis Computing Workshop, showcasing innovative humanitarian AI projects, and emphasized the need for responsible AI to incorporate peacebuilding and violence prevention into its framework.
Rome, Italy – On 1 July 2025, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) officially launched […]
Gothenburg, Sweden – On June 10th, during the 2025 edition of the annual DEMSCORE conference in […]
Gothenburg, Sweden – At the DEMSCORE conference hosted by the University of Gothenburg on 9–10 June […]
The 2025 Demscore Conference in Gothenburg began with discussions emphasizing data-driven research's role in understanding political systems. VIEWS, a consortium partner, showcased its early-warning system for armed conflict and contributed to panels on methodologies and innovations, reinforcing the importance of transparency in conflict data forecasting.
At the 2025 Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference in Barcelona, Paola Vesco presented research revealing that armed conflict exacerbates food insecurity caused by flooding in Myanmar. The study indicates that areas facing both disasters see significant declines in child health, emphasizing the importance of integrating peacebuilding into humanitarian efforts.
Title: The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, With Uncertainty […]
Title: Societies at risk: the correlation between intensity of armed conflict and child health during the […]
Title: Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies Author: Thorsten Rogall Year: […]
Title: Bridging Gaps in Water Governance: Addressing Conflict and Climate Challenges Authors: Stefan Döring Year: 2025 […]
VIEWS is featured in a new policy insight by TRENDS Research & Advisory examining how artificial […]
VIEWS was recently featured in an article by Wired Italia examining how artificial intelligence is being […]
We are pleased to announce that VIEWS’ conflict forecasts are now available on the Humanitarian Data […]
Forecasting the onset, spread, and impact of political violence is a central challenge for both researchers and policymakers. At the core of this challenge lies a fundamental need: access to high-quality, transparent, and timely data. The new UN Peace and Security Data Hub marks an important step toward closing that gap. By offering structured, publicly accessible, and regularly updated data on various aspects of UN peace support, the Hub opens new avenues for empirical research and policy-relevant analysis.
Dr. Paola Vesco, Deputy Director of the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS), was recently featured […]
The release of the April forecast data from VIEWS has been postponed due to planned maintenance […]
Dr. Stefan Döring, researcher with the Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) consortium, was recently featured […]
Geneva, Switzerland – VIEWS’ Simon Polichinel von der Maase and Alexa Timlick took center stage at […]
Uppsala, Sweden – On 21 March, Mihai Croicu successfully defended his PhD dissertation, “Forecasting Battles: New […]
Chicago, USA – From March 2-5, VIEWS participated in the International Studies Association’s (ISA) Annual Convention […]
Washington, D.C., USA – Paola Vesco, Deputy Director of VIEWS, presented at the Humanitarian Frontiers convening on March 5-6, […]
Title: Conflict Worsens the Impact of Flood on Food Insecurity: Evidence from the Nargis Cyclone in […]
In 2023, VIEWS initiated a conflict prediction challenge to enhance early-warning systems by shifting focus from point estimates to probability distributions of fatalities in armed conflicts. The challenge's results, available through a live dashboard, aim to improve decision-making for conflict prevention and response among policymakers.
Dr. Paola Vesco delivered a keynote at the IAERE 2025 conference, emphasizing the connection between climate variability and armed conflict. She advocated for predictive modeling to mitigate humanitarian crises, citing recent events like the Libya floods. The conference highlighted the necessity for interdisciplinary approaches to tackle climate-related challenges in economic contexts.
Doctoral Researcher Chandler Williams recently presented his ongoing work to the Kosovar Government at the international […]
On 2-5 March, several members of the VIEWS team will be in Chicago for the International […]
We are thrilled to welcome a new Machine Learning Developer to VIEWS: Sonja Hæffner! Sonja has […]
On February 25, VIEWS hosted a virtual Brownbag seminar featuring a presentation on the working paper […]
Abstract This study advances the field of conflict forecasting by using text-based actor embeddings with transformer […]
Abstract Over the past decade, the field of conflict forecasting has undergone a remarkable metamorphosis, transforming […]
On December 10th, VIEWS researcher Stefan Döring presented insights on the impact of war on water […]
Huge congratulations to our very own Mihai Croicu, who nailed his dissertation to the kitchen wall […]
Abstract: Despite unprecedented access to data, resources, and wealth, the world faces an escalating wave of […]
On January 28, VIEWS hosted a virtual Brownbag seminar featuring a presentation on the working paper […]
On January 22, VIEWS researcher Paola Vesco and PRIO researcher Ida Rudolfsen presented their co-authored paper, […]
The PSI-PRIOGRID Workshop, “The Future of Subnational Conflict Research,” held in Oslo on January 23–24, brought […]
On December 6, VIEWS led a workshop session on the use of AI-powered conflict early-warning systems […]
VIEWS Senior Researcher Simon Polichinel von der Maase delivered a keynote address titled “Early Warning, Early […]
On December 5, VIEWS Senior Researcher Simon Polichinel von der Maase led a session on leveraging […]
Back in October, we had the privilege of participating in a number of panel discussions on […]
The VIEWS team recently concluded a three-day meeting in Uppsala to finalize a next-generation conflict forecasting platform, launching this winter. This tool incorporates advanced machine learning, enhances transparency, and provides real-time evaluation mechanisms for informed decision-making in conflict mitigation. It aims to redefine conflict forecasting through robust predictions and operational stability.
The article reviews the literature on how armed conflicts adversely affect human development across nine dimensions, emphasizing the need for a multidisciplinary approach. It highlights gaps in research and calls for systematic empirical testing to better understand the interconnections between conflict impacts, ultimately aiming to inform policies that mitigate war's adverse effects.
On 22 November, Gudlaug Olafsdottir defended her dissertation titled Precarious Paths to Democracy: Electoral Violence and the Struggle for Democratization at Uppsala University, exploring the link between electoral violence and democratization. Previously, she worked as a Research Assistant with the VIEWS team, continuing collaboration during her doctoral studies. Congratulations, Gulla!
Elections globally remain prone to violence, prompting Dr. David Randahl's research team at Uppsala University to develop a forecasting model to predict electoral violence. This model, discussed in the podcast Researching Peace, aids in protecting democracy and informs the new Electoral Vulnerability Index, forecasting threats for 2024-2025.
A literature review by VIEWS' Societies at Risk project emphasizes that armed conflict severely impacts human development beyond immediate violence, affecting health, education, and economic stability. It identifies nine interrelated dimensions of society harmed by war and calls for comprehensive research to understand these cascading effects better. Effective recovery strategies are essential for long-term recovery.
From November 6-8, 2024, VIEWS co-organized a conference in Geneva focused on enhancing the use of arms flow data for conflict early warning. Attended by over 50 experts, discussions highlighted the need for optimizing existing data for use in quantitative models, and emphasized the value of cooperation among academics, policymakers, and practitioners to jointly improve capabilities for conflict early warning and early action.
The study by Randahl et al. develops machine-learning models to forecast electoral violence globally, addressing its threat to the legitimacy and fairness of electoral outcomes. By analyzing economic indicators, historical violence, and political instability, the models predict violence risk for 2024-2025 with high accuracy, aiding in effective prevention strategies for at-risk elections.
The Canadian DND/CAF launches the Fast Forward challenge, inviting innovators to use public data and machine learning to forecast fatalities in future armed conflicts. Ten teams may receive $25,000 each for model development, with top three teams winning up to $150,000. Applications are due by December 2, 2024.
Recordings from the PRIO AI Days sessions are now available on PRIO’s YouTube channel. Watch VIEWS researcher Simon Polichinel von der Maase discuss what's needed, from a model development perspective, to better align AI applications in early warning with stakeholder needs.
Watch the recording of the PRIO AI Days panel on the use of AI for early warning and early action, moderated by VIEWS' Operations & Outreach Manager, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan.
Watch the recordings from the PRIO AI Days sessions. This panel, titled "AI in Humanitarian Funding: Ensuring Fairness and Transparency," discusses AI's role in enhancing humanitarian funding efficiency while addressing ethical concerns. Speakers include Dr. Paola Vesco and experts from NORAD and NYU.
On October 17th, VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre presented VIEWS at the weekly UNDP data talk series […]
Title: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” Authors: David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, Håvard […]
Title: “This is not normal! (Re-) Evaluating the lower n guidelines for regression analysis” Authors: David […]
Title: “Forecasting Densities of Fatalities from State-based Conflicts using Observed Markov Models” Authors: David Randahl, Johan […]
Title: “When Sensitivity Bias Varies Across Subgroups: The Impact of Non-uniform Polarity in List Experiments” Authors: […]
The research by VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre and former VIEWS researcher Espen Geelmuyden Rød has been recognized in the scientific background document for the 2024 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences. Their study on democracy determinants is published in Public Choice and is available through Open Access.
We are thrilled to welcome four new members of staff this fall; three based at Uppsala […]
Join members of the VIEWS team from October 15th to 16th at PRIO for the upcoming […]
Several members and friends of the VIEWS team participated in the symposium organised by The Center […]
The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) was awarded a Special Distinction for the Use of […]
Next week the American Political Science Association’s (APSA) 120th Annual Meeting and Exhibition is taking place […]
Senior researcher and deputy director of VIEWS Paola Vesco participated in a seminar during Arendalsuka, the […]
Director Håvard Hegre was invited by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) as […]
Alexa Timlick, Research Assistant with VIEWS and at PRIO, received the 2024 Mats Hammarström Prize for […]
Alexa Timlick, Research Assistant with VIEWS and at PRIO, received the 2024 DEMSCORE Prize for an […]
The final submissions to the VIEWS Prediction Challenge 2023/2024 have trickled in and we are thrilled […]
Dr. Paola Vesco, VIEWS Deputy Director of VIEWS and Senior Researcher at PRIO, served as an […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Luca Macis, Marco […]
VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre presented during the first-ever Humanitarian Data Forum in The Hague from 12-14 June 2024. […]
Between June 25th and 28th, Visby and the Almedals Week invites anyone to participate in thousands […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Alexandra Málaga, Hannes […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: David Muchlinski and […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Vito D’Orazio
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: David Randahl and […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Simon Drauz and […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Thomas Schincariol, […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Kristian Skrede […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Tobias Bodentien […]
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, […]