News & Events
The latest updates from the VIEWS consortium
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Predicting Fatalities with Pre-trained Temporal Transformers: A Time Series Regression Approach”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Luca Macis, Marco Tagliapietra, Elena Siletti, and Paola Pisano
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
VIEWS at the Humanitarian Data Forum
VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre presented during the first-ever Humanitarian Data Forum in The Hague from 12-14 June 2024. The event brought together NGOs, governments, UN agencies, academia and private sector to discuss the future of humanitarian data. The event was further supported by another VIEWS collaborator, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund. Recordings from a number of plenary…
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
Climate, Health and Security with Stefan Döring
Between June 25th and 28th, Visby and the Almedals Week invites anyone to participate in thousands of events around current societal challenges and political discussions. This year, VIEWS member and researcher Stefan Döring participated in a panel organized by “Society and Defence” on how the climate threatens our health and the role of Sweden and…
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Predicting fatalities using newspaper text”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Alexandra Málaga, Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, and Benjamin Seimon
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“A Zero-Inflated Poisson Generalized Additive Model for Forecasting Conflict Fatalities”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: David Muchlinski and Chandler Thornhill
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Probabilistic Conflict Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Vito D’Orazio
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Forecasting fatalities from state based conflicts using Markov models”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: David Randahl and Johan Vegelius
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
Probabilistic Forecasting of Conflict Fatalities: Historical Quantiles vs. Bayesian Penalized Regression
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Simon Drauz and Friederike Becker
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Temporal patterns in conflict prediction: An improved shape-based approach”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Thomas Schincariol, Hannah Frank, and Thomas Chadefaux
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
“Random Forest Predictions with Dyad Features”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Finn Klebe, and Nils W. Metternich
