Research
From foundational studies to cutting-edge innovations: browse the research projects that have shaped, or been shaped, by the VIEWS consortium over the years.
-
Jun 2023 – Jun 2025
CRAF’d: VIEWS – People in Need
VIEWS-PIN is an academic research project set to provide early warnings of the need for humanitarian assistance for all months in a rolling three-year forecasting window, for all Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs).
-
Dec 2024 –
DND/CAF: IDEaS Prediction Contest
In 2024, the Canadian Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces (DND/CAF) invited research teams and innovators across the globe to take on the new “Fast Forward – Forecasting Global Emerging Threats” prediction challenge, offered through the Innovation for Defence Excellence and Security (IDEaS) program.
-
Dec 2022 – Dec 2027
ERC: ANTICIPATE
ANTICIPATE is a multi-disciplinary research project directed by Professor Håvard Hegre. It brings together scholars from economics, epidemiology, political science, and conflict research to study the impacts of armed conflicts on human development – in close collaboration with researchers from the “Societies at Risk” project at Uppsala University.
-
Jan 2017 – Dec 2021
ERC: The Violence Early-Warning System
VIEWS began as a pioneering research initiative to address a pressing global need: early, reliable, and actionable forecasts of political violence. The pilot project – then known as the political Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) – ran from 2017-2021, laying the technical and methodological groundwork for the system’s current operational form.
Topics: Conflict forecasting -
Sep 2022 – Feb 2024
ERC: ViEWS Proof of Concept
Funded by an ERC Proof-of-Concept grant, this project aimed to explore and enhance the societal relevance of ViEWS’ global and subnational conflict forecasts.
-
Jan 2020 – Dec 2022
ESCWA: The ViEWS-ESCWA Collaboration
A 2020-2022 collaboration with the United Nations Economic and Social Council for West Asia (ESCWA), through which we developed a new forecasting model under the ViEWS2 infrastructure that incorporates data of particular importance to the Arab states. Built as an expansion of the standard ViEWS set-up, the model covers all of Africa and the Middle…
-
Apr 2023 – Dec 2025
GFFO: Prediction Challenge 2023/2024
With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of our forecasts, we launched our second prediction competition in 2023. It challenged participants to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution over the outcome — thus taking the uncertainty of forecasts fully into account. Learn more about the prediction challenge, explore all forecasts from the…
-
Sep 2023 –
NRC: Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities (UFFAC)
Building onto and expanding the Violence & Impacts Early Warning System (VIEWS), the UFFAC project sets out to develop prediction models that forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflict while carefully exploring and assessing the multiple sources of uncertainty thereof with each monthly release of new VIEWS data.
-
Jan 2022 – Dec 2027
RJ: Societies at Risk
Societies at Risk is a multi-disciplinary research program that bring together scholars from public health research, economics, political science, peace and conflict research, and natural disaster science to study the impacts of armed conflict on human development. Results will be coordinated into the operational VIEWS model. The project is closely connected with the ANTICIPATE project.
-
Apr 2021 – Mar 2022
UK FCDO: Forecasting fatalities
“Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict” was a 2021-2022 research project funded with UK Aid from the GRSA fund at the United Kingdom Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (UK FCDO). It expanded the VIEWS system to predicting fatalities in armed conflict.
-
Jun 2023 – Aug 2023
UNHCR: Global Mapping of Forecasting Systems
Commission research to conduct a systematic review of operational early-warning systems for armed conflict and natural hazards, followed by a roadmap for the development of a bespoke UNHCR EWS for forced displacement.
-
Jan 2021 – Dec 2021
UNHCR: Sahel Predictive Analytics Project
The Sahel PA project doubles down on the special challenges facing the Sahel across the triple nexus of humanitarian aid, peace-building and development with the aim of guiding decision-makers by anticipating and quickly identifying where multiple risks overlap to allow for better preparedness and to support context analysis, planning, training, and capacity-building, while also outlining…