The Violence & Impacts
Early-Warning System
We deliver scalable, data-driven tools to empower decision-makers and humanitarian actors in early and anticipatory action.
Latest Updates
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Posted on 18 Jun 2025
Håvard Hegre Presents in Opening Panel at DEMSCORE Conference 2025
The 2025 Demscore Conference in Gothenburg began with discussions emphasizing data-driven research’s role in understanding political systems. VIEWS, a consortium partner, showcased its early-warning system for armed conflict and contributed to panels on methodologies and innovations, reinforcing the importance of transparency in conflict data forecasting.
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Paola Vesco Presents on Conflict, Floods, and Food Insecurity in Myanmar at NEPS 2025
At the 2025 Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference in Barcelona, Paola Vesco presented research revealing that armed conflict exacerbates food insecurity caused by flooding in Myanmar. The study indicates that areas facing both disasters see significant declines in child health, emphasizing the importance of integrating peacebuilding into humanitarian efforts.
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Posted on 7 May 2025
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, With Uncertainty
Title: The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, With Uncertainty Authors: Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D’Orazio, Hannah Frank, Cornelius Fritz,…
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Posted on 7 May 2025
Societies at Risk: the Correlation between Intensity of Armed Conflict and Child Health During the Civil War in South Sudan
Title: Societies at risk: the correlation between intensity of armed conflict and child health during the civil war in South Sudan Author: Caroline de Groot, MHD Bahaa Aldin Alhaffar & Anneli Eriksson Year: 2025 Suggested Citation: de Groot, C., Alhaffar, M.B.A. & Eriksson, A. Societies at risk: the correlation between intensity of armed conflict and child health during…
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Posted on 7 May 2025
Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies
Title: Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies Author: Thorsten Rogall Year: 2025 Suggested Citation: “Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies”, Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 20: No. 2, pp 183-229. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00021158 Abstract: How can autocratic leaders influence voters and entrench their rule? I analyze…
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Posted on 7 May 2025
Bridging Gaps in Water Governance: Addressing Conflict and Climate Challenges
Title: Bridging Gaps in Water Governance: Addressing Conflict and Climate Challenges Authors: Stefan Döring Year: 2025 Abstract: Despite frequent warnings of ‘water wars’, conflicts over water rarely escalate into violence. While most disputes over water access, quantity, or infrastructure remain non-violent, the gap between national water diplomacy and local water disputes presents a critical governance…
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Posted on 6 May 2025
TRENDS Research & Advisory Spotlights VIEWS in Report on AI and Conflict Prevention
VIEWS is featured in a new policy insight by TRENDS Research & Advisory examining how artificial intelligence and machine learning are reshaping the landscape of conflict prevention. The report, “The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Conflict Prevention,” highlights VIEWS as a leading example of how predictive analytics can support timely, data-driven responses to…
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What we Offer
Conflict forecasts
We provide open-access, monthly forecasts of armed conflicts worldwide at both country and sub-national levels, capturing the likelihood, extent and severity of future violence over the next 1-36 months.
impact assessments
We estimate the impact of future conflict events on affected populations, allowing decision-makers and humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Research infrastructure
We provide an open-access, cutting-edge MLOps pipeline for near real-time forecasting, ensuring robust and reliant service for use across the humanitarian, development, and peace nexus.
Interesting in powering your models on our platform, or incorporating them into the VIEWS EWS? Let’s talk!
global partnerships
We collaborate with leading research institutes, IGOs, INGOs and governments, to develop innovative forecasting solutions that enhance decision-making and empower humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Schedule a call to learn more on how we assist you and your organization.
Acknowledgements
Host institutions, funding agencies, and partners
VIEWS is co-hosted by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute Oslo. The research presented on this website is the outcome of projects that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 694640, ViEWS) and Horizon Europe (Grant agreement No. 101055176, ANTICIPATE; and 101069312, ViEWS (ERC-2022-POC1)), Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant agreement No. M21-0002, Societies at Risk), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ViEWS-ESCWA), the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (GSRA – Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict), the Swedish Research Council (DEMSCORE), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA Geopolitics), the Norwegian MFA (Conflict Trends QZA-18/0227), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the Sahel Predictive Analytics project and Global Mapping of Forecasting Systems), the Norwegian Research Council (UFFAC), and the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d, VIEWS-PIN).
