The fatalities002 model

Overview of the conflict prediction model fatalities002, in use between 2023-2025

OVERVIEW

The fatalities002 model

Source code
For each month in a rolling 3-year forecasting window, the fatalities002 model generated forecasts for the number of fatalities in impending state-based armed conflict, as well as dichotomous forecasts for the probability of at least 25 battle-related deaths (BRDs) per country-month and at least 1 BRD per PRIO-GRID-month. 
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UPDATE SCHEDULE

Monthly

PREDICTED TYPE(S) OF VIOLENCE

State-based conflict

FORECASTING WINDOW

1-36 months ahead

PREDICTED OUTCOMES

Continuous & dichotomous predictions

COUNTRY-LEVEL COVERAGE

Global

SUB-NATIONAL COVERAGE

Africa and the Middle East

INPUT DATA

The indicators informing the fatalities002 model

The fatalities002 model was informed by data on hundreds of variables from data providers such as the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), ACLED, PRIO-GRID, the World Bank, IMF, FAO, Mapsdam, SPEI and MIRCA.
Browse the source indicators used from September 2025 onwards (minor edit due to discontinuation of five indicators)