The ViEWS2018 model
Overview of the methodology and data infrastructure behind the legacy conflict prediction model ViEWS2018
ViEWS2018 was the first operational conflict prediction model employed by the VIEWS system. The pilot model was in use between 2018-2020.
Example prediction plot from the ViEWS2018 model. Predicted probability of at least one observed fatality from state-based conflict in June 2018, based on input data up to April 2018.
Please note that ViEWS2018 is a legacy model. The model codebase remains accessible via the open-source GitHub repository
OpenViEWS for transparency, but neither the model nor its underlying data infrastructure is supported or maintained. Please consult the operational model documentation for up-to-date information about the live prediction system.
OVERVIEW OF THE PREDICTION MODEL
The ViEWS2018 model
UPDATE SCHEDULE
Monthly
PREDICTED TYPE(S) OF VIOLENCE
State-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence
FORECASTING WINDOW
1-36 months ahead
PREDICTED OUTCOMES
Probability of exceeding pre-determined conflict thresholds
COUNTRY-LEVEL COVERAGE
Africa
SUB-NATIONAL COVERAGE
Africa
Model documentation
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayyed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, and Jonas Vestby.
Year: 2019
Journal of Peace Research,
56(2), 155-174
Data infrastructure
The ViEWS1 data infrastructure supporting the ViEWS2018 model
The ViEWS2018 model was built on and supported by the ViEWS1 data infrastructure.
It is documented alongside the model codebase in the
OpenViEWS GitHub repository. Please note that the repository remains open for transparency, but is no longer supported or maintained.