News & Events
The latest updates from the VIEWS consortium
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Posted on 28 Jun 2024
Forecasting Monthly Fatalities via a Negative Binomial Distribution and Comparison with a Hurdle Model and Neural Networks
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Tobias Bodentien and Lotta Rüter
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner, Christian Oswald, and Marco Binetti
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Predicting uncertainty in stages: Using a semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model for predicting distributions of conflict fatalities”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Cornelius Fritz, Christoph Dworschak, and Marius Mehrl
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Bayesian Density Forecasts for VIEWS”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Patrick T. Brandt
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Posted on 27 Jun 2024
“Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict”
Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, and Martin Hofer
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Posted on 25 Jun 2024
VIEWS at Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference
The 23rd Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference took place in Dublic from 17-19 June 2024. Several VIEWS team members and affiliated researchers presented at the conference:
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Posted on 14 Jun 2024
VIEWS at DEMSCORE Conference
Several team members attended the DEMSCORE conference in Gothenburg between 13-14 June 2024.
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Posted on 31 May 2024
Two new VIEWS Masters of Peace and Conflict
We congratulate Marina Matic and Alexa Timlick who successfully defended their master thesis earlier this week and today celebrate their graduation! We are happy and proud to have you both on our team.
Topics: Conflict -
Posted on 31 May 2024
Updates from Kosovo
VIEWS Doctoral Researcher Chandler Williams, continues to actively explore the relationship between armed conflict and wartime destruction. By combining data-driven analysis with comprehensive in-depth interviews, his study aims to deliver insightful perspectives on the nature of destruction during war. His research contributes to ANTICIPATE’s goals of providing and forecasting additional impacts of armed conflict.
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VIEWS at the EconAI workshop “Growing Together: Prediction, Prevention and Preparedness”
Last week, members of the VIEWS team attended the EconAI workshop in Barcelona, engaging in discussions on AI-based forecasting for conflict and natural disasters in the humanitarian sector. Key findings include growing interest in predictive analytics, challenges in integrating conflict forecasts, and the need for clear ethical guidelines and open dialogue to ensure the responsible…
