The Violence & Impacts
Early-Warning System
We deliver scalable, data-driven tools to empower decision-makers and humanitarian actors in early and anticipatory action.
Latest Updates
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Posted on 28 Nov 2024
Gudlaug Olafsdottir becomes Doctor in Peace Research
On 22 November, Gudlaug Olafsdottir defended her dissertation titled Precarious Paths to Democracy: Electoral Violence and the Struggle for Democratization at Uppsala University, exploring the link between electoral violence and democratization. Previously, she worked as a Research Assistant with the VIEWS team, continuing collaboration during her doctoral studies. Congratulations, Gulla!
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Posted on 28 Nov 2024
Predicting Electoral Violence – Podcast Episode with VIEWS Researcher Dr. Randahl and Prof. Fjelde
Elections globally remain prone to violence, prompting Dr. David Randahl’s research team at Uppsala University to develop a forecasting model to predict electoral violence. This model, discussed in the podcast Researching Peace, aids in protecting democracy and informs the new Electoral Vulnerability Index, forecasting threats for 2024-2025.
Topics: Podcast -
Posted on 25 Nov 2024
The Hidden Costs of Armed Conflict: A Multidisciplinary Look at War’s Impact on Human Development
A literature review by VIEWS’ Societies at Risk project emphasizes that armed conflict severely impacts human development beyond immediate violence, affecting health, education, and economic stability. It identifies nine interrelated dimensions of society harmed by war and calls for comprehensive research to understand these cascading effects better. Effective recovery strategies are essential for long-term recovery.
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Posted on 22 Nov 2024
VIEWS Co-Organizes Conference on Harnessing Arms Flow Data for Early Warning
From November 6-8, 2024, VIEWS co-organized a conference in Geneva focused on enhancing the use of arms flow data for conflict early warning. Attended by over 50 experts, discussions highlighted the need for optimizing existing data for use in quantitative models, and emphasized the value of cooperation among academics, policymakers, and practitioners to jointly improve…
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Inference with Extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models
Randahl & Vegelius (2024)
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Posted on 1 Nov 2024
Forecasting Electoral Violence
The study by Randahl et al. develops machine-learning models to forecast electoral violence globally, addressing its threat to the legitimacy and fairness of electoral outcomes. By analyzing economic indicators, historical violence, and political instability, the models predict violence risk for 2024-2025 with high accuracy, aiding in effective prevention strategies for at-risk elections.
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Posted on 31 Oct 2024
Launch of Prediction Challenge Hosted by the Canadian DND/CAF: “Fast Forward – Forecasting Global Emerging Threats”
The Canadian DND/CAF launches the Fast Forward challenge, inviting innovators to use public data and machine learning to forecast fatalities in future armed conflicts. Ten teams may receive $25,000 each for model development, with top three teams winning up to $150,000. Applications are due by December 2, 2024.
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Posted on 30 Oct 2024
VIEWS at PRIO AI Days: “Trust and Transparency in AI: Aligning with Stakeholder Needs”
Recordings from the PRIO AI Days sessions are now available on PRIO’s YouTube channel. Watch VIEWS researcher Simon Polichinel von der Maase discuss what’s needed, from a model development perspective, to better align AI applications in early warning with stakeholder needs.
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What we Offer
Conflict forecasts
We provide open-access, monthly forecasts of armed conflicts worldwide at both country and sub-national levels, capturing the likelihood, extent and severity of future violence over the next 1-36 months.
impact assessments
We estimate the impact of future conflict events on affected populations, allowing decision-makers and humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Research infrastructure
We provide an open-access, cutting-edge MLOps pipeline for near real-time forecasting, ensuring robust and reliant service for use across the humanitarian, development, and peace nexus.
Interesting in powering your models on our platform, or incorporating them into the VIEWS EWS? Let’s talk!
global partnerships
We collaborate with leading research institutes, IGOs, INGOs and governments, to develop innovative forecasting solutions that enhance decision-making and empower humanitarian actors to stay ahead of emerging crises.
Schedule a call to learn more on how we assist you and your organization.
Acknowledgements
Host institutions, funding agencies, and partners
VIEWS is co-hosted by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and Peace Research Institute Oslo. The research presented on this website is the outcome of projects that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 694640, ViEWS) and Horizon Europe (Grant agreement No. 101055176, ANTICIPATE; and 101069312, ViEWS (ERC-2022-POC1)), Riksbankens Jubileumsfond (Grant agreement No. M21-0002, Societies at Risk), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ViEWS-ESCWA), the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (GSRA – Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict), the Swedish Research Council (DEMSCORE), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA Geopolitics), the Norwegian MFA (Conflict Trends QZA-18/0227), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the Sahel Predictive Analytics project and Global Mapping of Forecasting Systems), the Norwegian Research Council (UFFAC), and the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d, VIEWS-PIN).
