selective focus photo of brown and blue hourglass on stones
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Julian Walterskirchen, […]
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bokeh photography of open book
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Predicting uncertainty in stages: Using a semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model for predicting distributions of conflict fatalities”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Cornelius Fritz, […]
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a remote control sitting on top of a table
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Bayesian Density Forecasts for VIEWS”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Author: Patrick T. […]
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photography of tall trees at daytime
by Angelica
June 27, 2024

“Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict”

Working paper documenting the prediction model submitted to the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction Challenge. Authors: Daniel Mittermaier, […]
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